Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in the end, but the 'path' to year-end was off most of the year.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line 2026'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 14th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in the end, but the 'path' to year-end was off most of the year.
You can now join this year's 'Draw the Line 2026' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 14th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

<ul>
<li>In this note, we compare the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years</li>
<li>In an annual view, several key growth metrics turned less negative, but with a deterioration since September 2025 in the monthly data</li>
<li>January-February macro-property data from NBS is due in the middle of March</li>
</ul>


In this note, we compare the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years
In an annual view, several key growth metrics turned less negative, but with a deterioration since September 2025 in the monthly data
January-February macro-property data from NBS is due in the middle of March


China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Stocks / Cover Story: China’s stock market roars back to life — but can it outrun economic gravity?</li><li>Trade /: China offers Brazil’s coffee-makers a partial escape from U.S. tariffs</li><li>Chips /: AI chipmaker Cambricon inches closer to becoming China’s priciest stock</li></ul>

Stocks / Cover Story: China’s stock market roars back to life — but can it outrun economic gravity?Trade /: China offers Brazil’s coffee-makers a partial escape from U.S. tariffsChips /: AI chipmaker Cambricon inches closer to becoming China’s priciest stock

CX Daily: China’s Stock Market Roars Back to Life — But Can It Outrun Economic Gravity? 

<ul><li>On July 25, Jinzhou Port Co. Ltd. became the first port operator to be kicked off a Chinese mainland stock exchange.</li><li><p>The delisting came after the securities watchdog determined the company had fabricated more than 8.6 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) in revenue and nearly 180 million yuan in profit between 2018 and 2021.</p></li><li><p>On its last A-share trading day, Jinzhou Port’s market value stood at 1.26 billion yuan, a staggering 80% collapse since the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) started investigating the company in late 2023.</p></li></ul>

On July 25, Jinzhou Port Co. Ltd. became the first port operator to be kicked off a Chinese mainland stock exchange.The delisting came after the securities watchdog determined the company had fabricated more than 8.6 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) in revenue and nearly 180 million yuan in profit between 2018 and 2021.On its last A-share trading day, Jinzhou Port’s market value stood at 1.26 billion yuan, a staggering 80% collapse since the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) started investigating the company in late 2023.

CX Daily: How a Tycoon Looted Billions of Yuan From a State-Backed Portv 

China

China Evergrande Group was a major Chinese property developer, known for large-scale residential projects and diversified operations in property management, new energy vehicles, cultural tourism, and health industries. The company was founded in 1996 and was headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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China Evergrande (3333 HK)

14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

We share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Full Year 2025 In Context - In 12 Charts

In this short note, we compare key macro-property metrics for the full year 2025 vs the past several years, looking at new home sales, prices, new...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: China’s Stock Market Roars Back to Life — But Can It Outrun Economic Gravity?

TOP STORIES Stocks / Cover Story: China’s stock market roars back to life — but can it outrun economic gravity? A blistering rally has lifted...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: How a Tycoon Looted Billions of Yuan From a State-Backed Portv

On July 25, Jinzhou Port Co. Ltd. became the first port operator to be kicked off a Chinese mainland stock exchange. The delisting came after the...

Caixin Global

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