Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> (CKH) is trading "cheap" as Panama's Supreme Court agrees to consider a request to nullify CKH's canal concessions. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on CKH, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> (coming up cheap on my monitor), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets Holdings (6 HK)</a> are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) (CKH) is trading "cheap" as Panama's Supreme Court agrees to consider a request to nullify CKH's canal concessions. 
Preceding my comments on CKH, CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) (coming up cheap on my monitor), and Power Assets Holdings (6 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-hsi-september-rally-what-s-next?slug=eqd-hsi-september-rally-what-s-next" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> about the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>'s we theorized a probable continuation of the rally in October, after some resistance, but the index just shoot up straight.</li>
<li>Resistance appeared last week, from an area considered a tail by our SHORT model, so it was not possible to make a forecast from there. </li>
<li>The question now is: can the index re-start to rally from here? Or will it pull back more this coming week?</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight about the Hang Seng Index's we theorized a probable continuation of the rally in October, after some resistance, but the index just shoot up straight.
Resistance appeared last week, from an area considered a tail by our SHORT model, so it was not possible to make a forecast from there. 
The question now is: can the index re-start to rally from here? Or will it pull back more this coming week?


EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Hong Kong and China Gas / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>At 5.4% for FY24-26F, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-china-gas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:375:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK)</a> has the second-highest dividend yield among its HK utility peers. A lower US rate makes it attractive.</li>
<li>An unchanged interim DPS of HK$0.12 despite a decline in reported net profit suggests the resilience of its dividend stream. Core operating profit has increased 2%.</li>
<li>While gearing has gone up, HKCG still has excellent cash-generating ability (FY23: HK$10.9bn). It has also cut back in capex with a 33% YoY drop for 1H24. </li>
</ul>


At 5.4% for FY24-26F, Hong Kong &amp; China Gas (3 HK) has the second-highest dividend yield among its HK utility peers. A lower US rate makes it attractive.
An unchanged interim DPS of HK$0.12 despite a decline in reported net profit suggests the resilience of its dividend stream. Core operating profit has increased 2%.
While gearing has gone up, HKCG still has excellent cash-generating ability (FY23: HK$10.9bn). It has also cut back in capex with a 33% YoY drop for 1H24. 


HK & China Gas (3 HK): A Yield Play Back in Favour

<ul>
<li>The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. </li>
<li>The right trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.</li>
</ul>


The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. 
The right trade is to buy JTower (4485 JP) below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> at too low a price. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.</li>
<li>Management continue to creep their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, and now hold a shade under 50%. </li>
</ul>


The Gulf Energy (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore AIS (ADVANC TB) at too low a price. 

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.
Management continue to creep their stake in Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and now hold a shade under 50%. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure is a global infrastructure company with diversified investments in energy, transportation, water, and waste management sectors. It also produces construction materials like cement and asphalt. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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CK Infrastructure (1038 HK)

StubWorld: Cheung Kong's Geopolitics

Labelling CKH an agent of China is misplaced. But with a Panamanian court judgement potentially imminent, it's probably still too early to jump in.

David Blennerhassett

EQD | The HSI Rally: Go LONG Now or Wait?

The Hang Seng Index rally went vertical, then pulled back last week. Is this the right time to go in LONG? Or better wait for the index to pullback...

Nico Rosti

HK & China Gas (3 HK): A Yield Play Back in Favour

HKCG offers an attractive dividend yield of 5.4% for FY24-26F, backed by its strong cash generation and reduced capex. Lower US interest rates...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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