Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).</li>
<li>IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.</li>
<li>Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>


We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).
IF Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.
Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of ASX 200 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, GQG Partners Inc DRC, Austal, Telix Pharmaceuticals.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of ASX 200 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, GQG Partners Inc DRC, Austal, Telix Pharmaceuticals.


ASX 200 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, Austal

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">NAB (NAB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/the-lottery-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35970:1" rel="noopener">The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minerals-260-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34601:1" rel="noopener">Minerals 260 (MI6 AU)</a>, andb<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 21st September, published on the 25th September.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$0.6bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: NAB (NAB AU), Codan (CDA AU), The Lottery Corporation (TLC AU), Minerals 260 (MI6 AU), andbSunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU).


Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 18th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.8bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance, EQ Resources.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Among index adds, we see large flows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Among index deletes, the largest flows are in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear (COH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/graincorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1" rel="noopener">Graincorp (GNC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 


Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Australia

Codan Limited develops rugged and electronics solutions for international government, corporate, NGO and consumer markets. The company's line of business includes provision of radio communications, metal detection and tracking solutions.

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Codan (CDA AU)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

ASX 200 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, Austal

We analyzed ASX 200's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, GQG Partners Inc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Aussie Shorts [21 Sep 2026]: NAB, Codan, The Lottery Corp, Minerals 260, Sunrise Energy Metals

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.3bn into "Diversified Metals"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 18th): Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Codan, Sunrise Energy Metals, TPG Telecom, Qbe...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Multiple index families rebalance in Oz at the close today. Estimated passive trading is A$5bn+. Shorts have built up in a lot of stocks and there...

Brian Freitas

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