Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.</li>
<li>We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Short-Term support on the SPX is at 6100-6150, 6028-6059, and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785.
We view any pullbacks to the these supports as buying opportunities, though we do not expect there to be another test of 5700-5785 any time soon.


Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In January this year, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a></strong> cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.</li>
<li>The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter's processing capacity earlier this year.</li>
<li>The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.</li>
</ul>


In January this year, Northern Star Resources (NST AU) cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter's processing capacity earlier this year.
The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.


Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 44 adds, 1 delete and 2 listing changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. There are capping and float changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. There is a lot of stock to buy in the inclusions.</li>
<li>There are a number of adds in Asia that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other local and global indices on the same day.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 adds, 1 delete and 2 listing changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 15% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. There is a lot of stock to buy in the inclusions.
There are a number of adds in Asia that will have same-way flow from passive trackers of other local and global indices on the same day.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Index Rebalance: 44 Adds; 1 Delete; US$3.2bn Trade

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be 44 ADDs and 2 DELs for the September 2026 rebal.  The ADDs are small yet high-impact and there will be one big DEL.</li>
<li>We expect a one-way flow of US$1.35bn for September 2026 to trade on the close of 18th September 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small/medium-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be 44 ADDs and 2 DELs for the September 2026 rebal.  The ADDs are small yet high-impact and there will be one big DEL.
We expect a one-way flow of US$1.35bn for September 2026 to trade on the close of 18th September 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep26 Results: 44 ADDs and 2 DELs; ~1.35bn One-Way Flows

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

United States

Coeur Mining, Inc., through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, operates, and/or owns silver and gold mining properties and companies.  The Company's properties are located primarily in the United States, Australia, and South America.

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Coeur Mining (CDE US)

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming: XLY, XME, KRE ++

Bitcoin Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Many Areas Breaking Out or Bottoming $XLY $XME $KRE $KBE $JETS $ITB $XBI $TAN...

Vermilion Research

Stay The Course As Northern Star (NST AU) Extends Olive Branch To Elliott

I'd advocate the mantra of “stay the course and let the expanded mill re‑rate the stock.” The pushback? Another material downgrade.

David Blennerhassett

MV Global Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) Index Rebalance: 44 Adds; 1 Delete; US$3.2bn Trade

There are 44 adds and 1 delete in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 15% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3.2bn. Lots to sell in Evolution...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep26 Results: 44 ADDs and 2 DELs; ~1.35bn One-Way Flows

We had foreseen big changes for the MV Gloabl Junior Gold Miners Index in Sep26 but the rebal is HUGE. VERY BROAD. 44 ADDs and only one real...

Travis Lundy

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

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