Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two <em>regular</em> changes in December 2025. There are also <em>multiple live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes</em>.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The wide $25-$29 range allows for valuation discussion amongst investors and the company. </li>
<li>From 2021 to 2024, their revenues grew at a 39% CAGR and have a $2.8b backlog, however debt overhang remains a concern. </li>
<li>We believe price sensitivity is likely to play a factor and a muted opening is potentially on deck.</li>
</ul>


The wide $25-$29 range allows for valuation discussion amongst investors and the company. 
From 2021 to 2024, their revenues grew at a 39% CAGR and have a $2.8b backlog, however debt overhang remains a concern. 
We believe price sensitivity is likely to play a factor and a muted opening is potentially on deck.


Legence Corp. (LGN): Strong Business Meets Debt Overhang Leaving IPO Investors Skeptical

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).</li>
<li>Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX is above 6028-6059 (up from 5700-5785 as it is highly unlikely to be tested).
Some will point to August seasonality as a reason to be cautious; we simply are not seeing any signs that suggest a meaningful pullback is imminent.


Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

<ul>
<li>The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.</li>
<li>This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.</li>
</ul>


The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday.
This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook.
Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.


Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Comfort Systems USA delivers a strong performance in its Third Quarter 2024 results, reflecting robust margins, significant revenue growth, and exceptional cash flow, all pointing to a healthy operational stance and positive future outlook.</li>
<li>The company reported earnings of $4.09 per share, a significant 40% increase compared to the previous year.</li>
<li>This was underscored by record-high operating income which is 50% higher than the corresponding quarter last year.</li>
</ul>


Comfort Systems USA delivers a strong performance in its Third Quarter 2024 results, reflecting robust margins, significant revenue growth, and exceptional cash flow, all pointing to a healthy operational stance and positive future outlook.
The company reported earnings of $4.09 per share, a significant 40% increase compared to the previous year.
This was underscored by record-high operating income which is 50% higher than the corresponding quarter last year.


FIX US: Will Their Expansion in Data Center and Industrial Sectors Catapult Their Top-Line Growth?

United States

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system installation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services. The Company's commercial and industrial markets include office buildings, retail centers, apartment complexes, hotels, manufacturing plants, and government facilities.

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Comfort Systems Usa (FIX US)

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

The S&P500 should have 2 ADDs + 2 DELs in Dec25 at this point. There are multiple possible intra-review M&A changes as well, which could reduce...

Travis Lundy

Legence Corp. (LGN): Strong Business Meets Debt Overhang Leaving IPO Investors Skeptical

Investors and company in valuation discussion over wide $25-$29 range, despite strong revenue growth and backlog, debt overhang and price...

IPO Boutique

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

FIX US: Will Their Expansion in Data Center and Industrial Sectors Catapult Their Top-Line Growth?

Comfort Systems USA delivers a strong performance in its Third Quarter 2024 results, reflecting robust margins, significant revenue growth, and...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

The S&P500 should have 2 ADDs + 2 DELs in Dec25 at this point. There are multiple possible intra-review M&A changes as well, which could reduce...

Travis Lundy

Legence Corp. (LGN): Strong Business Meets Debt Overhang Leaving IPO Investors Skeptical

​Investors and company in valuation discussion over wide $25-$29 range, despite strong revenue growth and backlog, debt overhang and price...

IPO Boutique

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Meaningful Pullback Imminent? Not Likely

Market Extended Entering Seasonally Weak August; Still Little Evidence that a Meaningful Pullback is Imminent. Still Bullish $SPX $QQQ since 4/22...

Vermilion Research

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto (MSTR, HOOD, BTDR) And Quantum (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI) Leading

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs; Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $BTDR $COIN and Quantum $QBTS $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT) Leading. Bullish outlook intact as long as...

Vermilion Research

FIX US: Will Their Expansion in Data Center and Industrial Sectors Catapult Their Top-Line Growth?

Comfort Systems USA delivers a strong performance in its Third Quarter 2024 results, reflecting robust margins, significant revenue growth, and...

Baptista Research

Investors and company in valuation discussion over wide $25-$29 range, despite strong revenue growth and backlog, debt overhang and price...