Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a  seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production slowed to 0.2% y-o-y in March 2016 compared to a 1.1% y-o-y increase in February 2016. It grew 1.6% y-o-y on a 3-month moving average basis in March compared to 1.7% y-o-y in February.In terms of industry segments, chemicals &amp; basic pharmaceutical production saw a decline of around 5.5% y-o-y in March compared to an increase of 0.4% y-o-y in…

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains precarious. We expect this to continue in 2016 where imbalances at the trade route level and insufficient measures to reduce ship capacity will further accelerate freight rate reductions and industry losses. We expect 2016 to be dominated by continued weak global trade growth, sustained erosion in freight rates and weakened balance sheets – each unfavourable to a major recovery in share prices, in our view”

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  </li>
<li>The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.</li>
<li>CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  
The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.
CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.


Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus., Carbon Tracker Initiative

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Focused on the Climate–Nature Nexus.

Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker - part of the Tracker Group - are award-winning, non-profit financial think tanks focused on the climate–nature nexus.

<ul><li>Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.</li><li>Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.</li><li>Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.</li></ul>

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this decade.Even if all existing, under-development and announced projects ran at full capacity, AJF would account for only about 5% of global jet fuel and meet less than half of projected demand growth by 2030.Longer-term, hurdles like high costs, scarce sustainable feedstocks and weak bankability may keep further scaling constrained.

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Despite a few pockets of improved demand, key Transpacific trade remains weak</li>
<li>Most carriers reported low (48% - 68%) but stable cargo load factors in August</li>
<li>For carriers, still lots of empty space to sell; macro view shows no "snap-back"</li>
</ul>


Despite a few pockets of improved demand, key Transpacific trade remains weak
Most carriers reported low (48% - 68%) but stable cargo load factors in August
For carriers, still lots of empty space to sell; macro view shows no "snap-back"


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | August Shows Pockets of Growth | But LF, Pricing Both Still Very Weak

Germany

Deutsche Lufthansa Aktiengesellschaft provides passenger and cargo air transportation services worldwide. The Company offers flight and connection programs in North America, Scandinavia, and Asia. Deutsche Lufthansa also provides travel agency, catering, and aircraft maintenance services.

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Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)

Eurozone: March Industrial Production Lower than Expected

Industrial Production growth in the Eurozone came in lower than expected in March 2016. On a seasonally and working day adjusted basis, production...

Rajan Govil

Container Shipping 2016 – Operators Facing Prisoner's Dilemma; Industry Could Lose USD 5bn in 2016

Seven years after the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, the supply-demand balance of the container shipping industry remains...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): A Good Start

CX's FY25 net profit of HK$10.8bn (+9.5% YoY) has beaten market expectations widely, as it is 19.1% ahead of the consensus forecast. With a second...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Safran SA - Sustainable Aviation - Fuel Disclosure

Alternative jet fuels (AJF), often referred to as sustainable aviation fuels or SAF, are unlikely to deliver material emissions cuts this...

Carbon Tracker Initiative

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | August Shows Pockets of Growth | But LF, Pricing Both Still Very Weak

August air cargo data from a range of carriers and cargo gateways around the Pacific Rim show uneven demand, but still-low utilization and weak...

Tracking Traffic

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