Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Resumption of full-scale war last week has been followed by a US pause. But Iran has widened the conflict via proxies in Yemen and Iraq. Hormuz Strait fees are likely. </li>
<li>Hezbollah is isolated in Lebanon, where the official government and Israel's interests converge. Houthis don't control Bab al-Mandab, but can threaten passage near it. Iran therefore holds the keys. </li>
<li>Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz Straits will be interim positive. But the US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues is wide. US will need another major attack on Iran to change Iran's calculus. </li>
</ul>


Resumption of full-scale war last week has been followed by a US pause. But Iran has widened the conflict via proxies in Yemen and Iraq. Hormuz Strait fees are likely. 
Hezbollah is isolated in Lebanon, where the official government and Israel's interests converge. Houthis don't control Bab al-Mandab, but can threaten passage near it. Iran therefore holds the keys. 
Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz Straits will be interim positive. But the US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues is wide. US will need another major attack on Iran to change Iran's calculus. 


US-Iran War Resumes Amid Negotiations: Key Problem Still the Nuclear Stalemate

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.</li>
<li>The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/knowledge-atlas-technology-joint-stock-company-limited-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44500:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK)</a> and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giga-device-semiconductor-inc-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minimax-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46185:1" rel="noopener">MiniMax (100 HK)</a> are also riskier names in the current market environment. </li>
</ul>


The collapse of the US markets on Friday, following better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in May, is expected to send the Asian markets into panic on Monday.
The IPOs in Hong Kong this year are vulnerable, especially those that performed well, like Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513 HK) and Beijing Deepzero Technology (2723 HK).

GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK), Montage Technology (6809 HK), and MiniMax (100 HK) are also riskier names in the current market environment. 


HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight E / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Last week's Compass (May 19) was titled "SPX and QQQ Testing 8-day EMAs; Buy the Pullback," and the market bottomed that day.</li>
<li>We saw significant FUD about rising oil, yields, and the DXY in recent weeks, but we've been discussing weekly since our May 5th Compass how we were not overly concerned</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Last week's Compass (May 19) was titled "SPX and QQQ Testing 8-day EMAs; Buy the Pullback," and the market bottomed that day.
We saw significant FUD about rising oil, yields, and the DXY in recent weeks, but we've been discussing weekly since our May 5th Compass how we were not overly concerned


RSP, QQEW, Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil and Gasoline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan car sales (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 22,015 units in Apr 2026, up by 107% YoY and 42% MoM. This took 10MFY26 cumulative sales to 166,044 units, up 49% YoY.</li><li>This rise was majorly driven by a rise in sales seen in Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) and Sazgar Engineering (SAZEW).</li><li>The impressive 107% YoY growth was driven by new market entrants, new product launches, relatively lower inflation in previous months, and surge in auto financing. To recall, auto financing reached 42-month high in Mar 2026 up 34% YoY and 3% MoM.</li></ul>

Pakistan car sales (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 22,015 units in Apr 2026, up by 107% YoY and 42% MoM. This took 10MFY26 cumulative sales to 166,044 units, up 49% YoY.This rise was majorly driven by a rise in sales seen in Pak Suzuki Motor Company (PSMC) and Sazgar Engineering (SAZEW).The impressive 107% YoY growth was driven by new market entrants, new product launches, relatively lower inflation in previous months, and surge in auto financing. To recall, auto financing reached 42-month high in Mar 2026 up 34% YoY and 3% MoM.

Pakistan Automobiles: Car Sales Rose 107% YoY and 42% MoM to 22,015 Units in Apr 2026

<ul><li>KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs491bn in 3QFY26, up 19% YoY and 8% QoQ from Rs412bn in 3QFY25.</li><li>Excluding OMCs/Refineries, profits are up by 5% YoY but down 2% QoQ in 3QFY26.</li><li>The banking sector’s earnings rose 2% YoY and 14% QoQ to Rs169.7bn in 3QFY26.</li></ul>

KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs491bn in 3QFY26, up 19% YoY and 8% QoQ from Rs412bn in 3QFY25.Excluding OMCs/Refineries, profits are up by 5% YoY but down 2% QoQ in 3QFY26.The banking sector’s earnings rose 2% YoY and 14% QoQ to Rs169.7bn in 3QFY26.

Pakistan Strategy – Corporate Profitability in 3QFY26; Earnings Up 19% YoY, Excluding OMCs/Refineries Up 5% YoY

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US-Iran War Resumes Amid Negotiations: Key Problem Still the Nuclear Stalemate

US pauses after resumed war. Iran widens conflict via proxies in Yemen/Iraq, but holds key in Bab al-Mandab. Wide US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

RSP, QQEW, Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil and Gasoline

$RSP $QQEW Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil $USO and Gasoline $UGA. FUD surrounding oil, yields, and...

Vermilion Research

Pakistan Automobiles: Car Sales Rose 107% YoY and 42% MoM to 22,015 Units in Apr 2026

Pakistan car sales (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 22,015 units in Apr 2026, up by 107% YoY and 42% MoM. This took 10MFY26 cumulative sales to...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Strategy – Corporate Profitability in 3QFY26; Earnings Up 19% YoY, Excluding OMCs/Refineries Up 5% YoY

KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs491bn in 3QFY26, up 19% YoY and 8% QoQ from Rs412bn in 3QFY25. Excluding OMCs/Refineries, profits are...

Topline Securities

US-Iran War Resumes Amid Negotiations: Key Problem Still the Nuclear Stalemate

​US pauses after resumed war. Iran widens conflict via proxies in Yemen/Iraq, but holds key in Bab al-Mandab. Wide US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HK Strategy: The Imminent Sell-Off - What IPOs Are More Vulnerable?

​The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

RSP, QQEW, Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil and Gasoline

$RSP $QQEW Dow Breaking Out; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Market Weight. Selling Crude Oil $USO and Gasoline $UGA. FUD surrounding oil, yields, and...

Vermilion Research

Pakistan Automobiles: Car Sales Rose 107% YoY and 42% MoM to 22,015 Units in Apr 2026

Pakistan car sales (as reported by PAMA) clocked in at 22,015 units in Apr 2026, up by 107% YoY and 42% MoM. This took 10MFY26 cumulative sales to...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Strategy – Corporate Profitability in 3QFY26; Earnings Up 19% YoY, Excluding OMCs/Refineries Up 5% YoY

KSE-100 index companies posted earnings of Rs491bn in 3QFY26, up 19% YoY and 8% QoQ from Rs412bn in 3QFY25. Excluding OMCs/Refineries, profits are...

Topline Securities

US pauses after resumed war. Iran widens conflict via proxies in Yemen/Iraq, but holds key in Bab al-Mandab. Wide US-Iran gulf on nuclear issues,...

The US market collapse on Friday will trigger panic in Asian markets. HK IPOs like Knowledge Atlas, Beijing Deepzero, GigaDevice Semiconductor,...