Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Trump claims to have won a military victory, but his latest 2-week postponement of the apocalyptic bombing of Iran smells of TACO, with bombastic claims being made by both parties.</li>
<li>There's a massive gulf between the US's 15 point proposal for peace, and even the English version of Iran's 10-point response, with Iran's nuclear disarmament presenting the biggest dissonance. </li>
<li>Infighting in Iran's regime makes a comprehensive deal even tougher; resumption of war is likely before a final deal emerges. We recommend selling into the current strength in markets. </li>
</ul>


Trump claims to have won a military victory, but his latest 2-week postponement of the apocalyptic bombing of Iran smells of TACO, with bombastic claims being made by both parties.
There's a massive gulf between the US's 15 point proposal for peace, and even the English version of Iran's 10-point response, with Iran's nuclear disarmament presenting the biggest dissonance. 
Infighting in Iran's regime makes a comprehensive deal even tougher; resumption of war is likely before a final deal emerges. We recommend selling into the current strength in markets. 


US: TACO to the Rescue Again; Gulf Between 2 Sides Remains Gaping

<ul>
<li>While Trump has promised Iran's 'civilisation will end tonight' in the absence of Iran agreeing to a peace deal on US terms, the likelier US focus will be opening Hormuz. </li>
<li>Kharg island is Iran's economic lifeline, Qeshm the strategic key to holding Hormuz Straits. US likely to focus on these (plus Tunb and Abu Musa for UAE), not bombing infrastructure. </li>
<li>Both will prolong market pain. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) remains a low probability outcome, despite last-minute pleas from Pakistan. Stay cautious, focused on commodities, metals and high-yield stocks. </li>
</ul>


While Trump has promised Iran's 'civilisation will end tonight' in the absence of Iran agreeing to a peace deal on US terms, the likelier US focus will be opening Hormuz. 
Kharg island is Iran's economic lifeline, Qeshm the strategic key to holding Hormuz Straits. US likely to focus on these (plus Tunb and Abu Musa for UAE), not bombing infrastructure. 
Both will prolong market pain. TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) remains a low probability outcome, despite last-minute pleas from Pakistan. Stay cautious, focused on commodities, metals and high-yield stocks. 


US-Iran: Scenarios for Escalation Remain Dominant, with Deal Prospects Obscure

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


<ul>
<li>China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. </li>
<li>There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. </li>
<li>The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. </li>
</ul>


China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. 
There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. 
The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. 


US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

US: TACO to the Rescue Again; Gulf Between 2 Sides Remains Gaping

Trump's victory claim is matched by Iran's, and is overshadowed by a potential resumption of war amid wide differences in peace proposals,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US-Iran: Scenarios for Escalation Remain Dominant, with Deal Prospects Obscure

US likely to invade Kharg & other isles, not bomb Iran's infrastructure. Market pain expected to continue. TACO remains low probability. Stay...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

US: TACO to the Rescue Again; Gulf Between 2 Sides Remains Gaping

​Trump's victory claim is matched by Iran's, and is overshadowed by a potential resumption of war amid wide differences in peace proposals,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US-Iran: Scenarios for Escalation Remain Dominant, with Deal Prospects Obscure

US likely to invade Kharg & other isles, not bomb Iran's infrastructure. Market pain expected to continue. TACO remains low probability. Stay...

Prasenjit K. Basu

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

​China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

Trump's victory claim is matched by Iran's, and is overshadowed by a potential resumption of war amid wide differences in peace proposals,...

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...