HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Market experiencing steepening yield curve, potentially indicating higher inflation and stronger growth</li><li>Stocks rallying, with significant moves in earnings yield and small caps</li><li>Asia and Europe markets up, Dow, S&amp;P, Nasdaq, and Russell all posting gains; Gold and Bitcoin down, Oil up, Vix down</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Market experiencing steepening yield curve, potentially indicating higher inflation and stronger growthStocks rallying, with significant moves in earnings yield and small capsAsia and Europe markets up, Dow, S&amp;P, Nasdaq, and Russell all posting gains; Gold and Bitcoin down, Oil up, Vix downThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bitcoin, Buffett, and the Barbarians at the Gate | Ep. #020 - The New Barbarians Podcast

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  </li>
<li>M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. </li>
<li>10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. 
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.


US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common</li>
<li>And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area</li>
</ul>


In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area


Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

<ul>
<li>US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. </li>
<li>Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. </li>
<li>Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. </li>
</ul>


US headline inflation was lower than consensus but in line with our view that Trump's policies will be disinflationary. Core CPI inflation (3.1%YoY in Feb'25) was at a 46-month low. 
Trump has kept crude oil prices well contained (near US$70/bbl, down 17%YoY), an important factor helping to lower headline and core inflation. DOGE impact on spending/job cuts will flow in. 
Inflationary impact of import-tariff hikes will be modest (imports are only 20% of GDP), with greater disinflation from oil and DOGE. We expect FedFunds to fall to 3.5% by end-2025. 


US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

<ul>
<li>In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.</li>
<li>We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.</li>
</ul>


In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

United States

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. It has been a widely followed indicator of the stock market since October 1, 1928.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Bitcoin, Buffett, and the Barbarians at the Gate | Ep. #020 - The New Barbarians Podcast

Alex Fleiss, CEO of Rebellion Research, discusses the current twist steepener regime in the market, with the yield curve steepening due to the...

William Mann

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

Bitcoin, Buffett, and the Barbarians at the Gate | Ep. #020 - The New Barbarians Podcast

Alex Fleiss, CEO of Rebellion Research, discusses the current twist steepener regime in the market, with the yield curve steepening due to the...

William Mann

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

​Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on $SPX; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600. 5670-5718 is short-term gap support; Power in hands of bulls if...

Vermilion Research

US: Trump Disinflation Evident in Feb'25, Likely to Continue as DOGE Cuts Flow In

​US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...

Prasenjit K. Basu

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

US CPI inflation lower than expected, core inflation at 46-month low. Crude oil prices contained, DOGE impact on spending/job cuts to offset...