HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Fu Shou Yuan International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China recorded 270,000 increases in deaths in 2022 to 10.41m (+2.7% YoY, vs. flat in 2020). This is a sad demographic trend but favourable to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>Death rate of 0.74% has returned to the 1974 level. With termination of "zero COVID" policy, this is poised to increase. This will also stimulate demand for its pre-need services.</li>
<li>Despite a 73% rebound in share price from trough, valuation is still undemanding at 14.4x FY23F PER. This implies a 35% discount to the average of 22x since 2013. </li>
</ul>


China recorded 270,000 increases in deaths in 2022 to 10.41m (+2.7% YoY, vs. flat in 2020). This is a sad demographic trend but favourable to Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK).  
Death rate of 0.74% has returned to the 1974 level. With termination of "zero COVID" policy, this is poised to increase. This will also stimulate demand for its pre-need services.
Despite a 73% rebound in share price from trough, valuation is still undemanding at 14.4x FY23F PER. This implies a 35% discount to the average of 22x since 2013. 


Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Latest Mortality Rate Supports Long-Term Outlook

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>China’s U-turn on COVID policy has led to skyrocketed infection cases/mortality. Demand for funeral services due to additional deaths would surge, so positive sentiment on Fu Shou Yuan could continue.</li>
<li>Fu Shou Yuan's performance is expected to rebound in 22H2 and 23H1 driven by high demand and relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. It’s a good short-term trade with strong catalyst.</li>
<li>The acceleration and resonance of population aging trend, the new urbanization process and the increase of cremation rate of remains provide objective conditions for Fu Shou Yuan’s long-term upward performance.  </li>
</ul>


China’s U-turn on COVID policy has led to skyrocketed infection cases/mortality. Demand for funeral services due to additional deaths would surge, so positive sentiment on Fu Shou Yuan could continue.
Fu Shou Yuan's performance is expected to rebound in 22H2 and 23H1 driven by high demand and relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. It’s a good short-term trade with strong catalyst.
The acceleration and resonance of population aging trend, the new urbanization process and the increase of cremation rate of remains provide objective conditions for Fu Shou Yuan’s long-term upward performance.  


Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK)- China’s Soaring COVID-19 Death Rate Ignites High Demand for Funeral Services

<ul>
<li>China funeral industry has large growth potential.The total market scale would be about RMB400 billion if based on annual death toll of 10 million and per capita expenditure of RMB40,000.</li>
<li>Information asymmetry weakens the bargaining power of buyers. Administrative barriers raise the threshold of market access and weaken competition. So, related companies usually have high profitability and return on capital.</li>
<li>Changes in population structure would have a negative impact on most consumer goods, but demand of funeral industry would continue to rise. Investors would have both alpha and beta superposition.</li>
</ul>


China funeral industry has large growth potential.The total market scale would be about RMB400 billion if based on annual death toll of 10 million and per capita expenditure of RMB40,000.
Information asymmetry weakens the bargaining power of buyers. Administrative barriers raise the threshold of market access and weaken competition. So, related companies usually have high profitability and return on capital.
Changes in population structure would have a negative impact on most consumer goods, but demand of funeral industry would continue to rise. Investors would have both alpha and beta superposition.


China Funeral Industry - Investment Opportunity with Both Alpha and Beta Superposition

<ul>
<li>The volatile market environment prompted us to seek for companies with secured demand, high earnings quality and solid financial position - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK)</a> fits these criteria.</li>
<li>It has established earnings record, favourable demographic environment, good reserve for growth and upside from geographical expansion. We like its emphasis on shareholder return through rising payout and share buyback. </li>
<li>Its net cash position, which amounted to 20% of the market capitalisation, adds further comfort to us. Meanwhile, valuations are not stretched relative to international peers.</li>
</ul>


The volatile market environment prompted us to seek for companies with secured demand, high earnings quality and solid financial position - Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK) fits these criteria.
It has established earnings record, favourable demographic environment, good reserve for growth and upside from geographical expansion. We like its emphasis on shareholder return through rising payout and share buyback. 
Its net cash position, which amounted to 20% of the market capitalisation, adds further comfort to us. Meanwhile, valuations are not stretched relative to international peers.


Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): An Everlasting Growth Business

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Headquartered in Shanghai, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK)</a> (FSY) is one of the largest funeral home companies worldwide with revenue of US$289mn in 2020.
China has high entry barriers for the death care industry as local governments enforce licensing caps. Coupled with a shortage of burial space, an increasing wealthy portion of the population, and the social stigma attached to the business, FSY enjoys high margins amid a relatively inelastic demand.
Shares are down 12% from the recent high in May. A sound investment or is this dead money?

Headquartered in Shanghai, Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK) (FSY) is one of the largest funeral home companies worldwide with revenue of US$289mn in 2020.
China has high entry barriers for the death care industry as local governments enforce licensing caps. Coupled with a shortage of burial space, an increasing wealthy portion of the population, and the social stigma attached to the business, FSY enjoys high margins amid a relatively inelastic demand.
Shares are down 12% from the recent high in May. A sound investment or is this dead money?

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): No Stiff Competition

China

Fu Shou Yuan International provides burial and funeral services, along with other related services, across the People's Republic of China. Its core activities include selling burial plots, offering cemetery maintenance, and planning and hosting funeral arrangements. The company also manufactures and sells cremation devices and provides education services. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Fu Shou Yuan International (1448 HK)

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Latest Mortality Rate Supports Long-Term Outlook

Increase in death and mortality rate in 2022 are sad demographic trends but favourable to Fu Shou Yuan. We think pre-need services will grow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK)- China’s Soaring COVID-19 Death Rate Ignites High Demand for Funeral Services

China’s U-turn on COVID policy has led to surging infection cases/mortality, bringing high demand for funeral services. Fu Shou Yuan is a good...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Funeral Industry - Investment Opportunity with Both Alpha and Beta Superposition

Death is inevitable, which provides continuous demand for China funeral industry. Related companies have high return on capital. investors will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): An Everlasting Growth Business

Fu Shou Yuan offers good insulation from economic downturn from its unique exposure to the death care service market in China. It has strong cash...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): No Stiff Competition

Fu Shou Yuan is an attractive business: the largest player in China, high margins, high entry barriers, and relatively low capex needs. One to buy...

David Blennerhassett

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