Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.</li>
<li>
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>My base case valuation of Elice Group is target price of 62,353 won per share. This is 11.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Given the lack of upside, I have a Negative View of this IPO. The bankers used eight overseas companies as comps for Elice Group. I disagree. </li>
<li>My base case valuation of Elice Group is based on a P/E of 34.7x my estimated net profit of 20.1 billion in 2026. </li>
</ul>


My base case valuation of Elice Group is target price of 62,353 won per share. This is 11.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. 
Given the lack of upside, I have a Negative View of this IPO. The bankers used eight overseas companies as comps for Elice Group. I disagree. 
My base case valuation of Elice Group is based on a P/E of 34.7x my estimated net profit of 20.1 billion in 2026. 


<ul>
<li>I tally 37- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Tender Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadoya-sesame-mills-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10367:1" rel="noopener">Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/transpacific-industries-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19885:1" rel="noopener">Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/european-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10716:1" rel="noopener">European Lithium (EUR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gabia-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13535:1" rel="noopener">Gabia Inc (079940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/refine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34857:1" rel="noopener">Refine Co Ltd (377450 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fleetpartners-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:339:1" rel="noopener">FleetPartners Group (FPR AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Tender Offers for Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) and Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU), European Lithium (EUR AU), Gabia Inc (079940 KS), Refine Co Ltd (377450 KS), and FleetPartners Group (FPR AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Leopalace21, Cleanaway, Kadoya Sesame Mills, Gabia, Refine, FleetPartners

<ul>
<li>You probably have downside to ¥3,720 if EQT's bid lapses. Downside may be limited to ¥3,760 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com (2371 JP)</a> convinces Bain to bid up to negotiate with KDDI.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> extends an olive branch to Elliott, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight.</li>
<li>If one wants SBI to raise the price for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener"> (4477 JP)</a>, it behooves the market to trade at ¥345 again. Get long, or get longer.</li>
</ul>


You probably have downside to ¥3,720 if EQT's bid lapses. Downside may be limited to ¥3,760 if Kakaku.com (2371 JP) convinces Bain to bid up to negotiate with KDDI.

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) extends an olive branch to Elliott, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight.
If one wants SBI to raise the price for (4477 JP), it behooves the market to trade at ¥345 again. Get long, or get longer.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku, Northern Star Resources, BASE Inc, Reliance Worldwide, Cloudbreak

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ingenia-communities-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5495:1" rel="noopener">Ingenia Communities (INA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16344:1" rel="noopener">Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharingtechnology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26948:1" rel="noopener">Sharingtechnology Inc (3989 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenith-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3234:1" rel="noopener">Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cygnus-metals-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30504:1" rel="noopener">Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals were was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Ingenia Communities (INA AU), Albis Co Ltd (7475 JP), and Sharingtechnology Inc (3989 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on:Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU), and Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku, Ingenia Communities, Albis, Sharingtechnology, Cygnus Metals

South Korea

Gabia Inc. provides Internet domain registration services.  The Company offers customer support and services such as Web hosting, domain registration and management, and Web agency.  Gabia also provides solution for Internet shopping mall and e-learning business.

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Gabia Inc (079940 KS)

Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

For the month of Sept, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma, with an overall deal size of ~US$26bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Elice Group IPO Valuation Analysis

My base case valuation of Elice Group is target price of 62,353 won per share. This is 11.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Leopalace21, Cleanaway, Kadoya Sesame Mills, Gabia, Refine, FleetPartners

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku, Northern Star Resources, BASE Inc, Reliance Worldwide, Cloudbreak

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kakaku, Ingenia Communities, Albis, Sharingtechnology, Cygnus Metals

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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