External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.</li><li>Trends were split across specific currency contracts but aggregate exposure to the USD among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts was all but unchanged (just USD14mn higher, to be precise) on the week at USD23.3bn.</li><li>Leveraged traders (hedge funds) pared some USD2bn from their net long USD positions, taking exposure down to USD6.9bn, and Institutional (real money) traders held their tentative net long USD position little changed at USD1.3bn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.Trends were split across specific currency contracts but aggregate exposure to the USD among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts was all but unchanged (just USD14mn higher, to be precise) on the week at USD23.3bn.Leveraged traders (hedge funds) pared some USD2bn from their net long USD positions, taking exposure down to USD6.9bn, and Institutional (real money) traders held their tentative net long USD position little changed at USD1.3bnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Mixed but Stable into Holiday Break

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Main point: The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus EUR/GBP rates, higher USD vs. peers, and higher US equity returns compared to Europe/Asia.</li><li>The risk/reward of taking the opposite bet is starting to look appetizing.</li><li>We have been looking at the explosive increase in US equity positioning for a while, as multiple indicators show that equities are reaching stretched points positioning-wise — CFTC positioning among asset managers skyrocketing, our own data showing increased positioning in US vs. the rest of the world, and surveys starting to indicate that everyone is expecting equities to crawl higher.</li></ul>

Main point: The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus EUR/GBP rates, higher USD vs. peers, and higher US equity returns compared to Europe/Asia.The risk/reward of taking the opposite bet is starting to look appetizing.We have been looking at the explosive increase in US equity positioning for a while, as multiple indicators show that equities are reaching stretched points positioning-wise — CFTC positioning among asset managers skyrocketing, our own data showing increased positioning in US vs. the rest of the world, and surveys starting to indicate that everyone is expecting equities to crawl higher.

Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of market positioning and investors sentiment on the major currencies form the CFTC shows a further increase in aggregate USD long positioning.</li><li>No great surprise, perhaps. Overall net long USD positioning among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts showed an increase of USD5.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) to USD23.3bn—back to peak USD bullishness seen through June of this year.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding modestly again to net long USD positioning (USD8.9bn) while Institutional (real money) traders initiated their first net long USD position since late April.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of market positioning and investors sentiment on the major currencies form the CFTC shows a further increase in aggregate USD long positioning.No great surprise, perhaps. Overall net long USD positioning among NonCommercial (speculative) accounts showed an increase of USD5.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking USD net longs (aggregated across the major currencies we monitor for this report) to USD23.3bn—back to peak USD bullishness seen through June of this year.Additional data shows Leveraged traders (hedge funds) adding modestly again to net long USD positioning (USD8.9bn) while Institutional (real money) traders initiated their first net long USD position since late April.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish EUR Sentiment Strengthens

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Discussion on election week strategies and market scenarios</li><li>Analysis of dollar and euro performance based on election outcomes</li><li>Review of UK budget impact on sterling and business confidence</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion on election week strategies and market scenariosAnalysis of dollar and euro performance based on election outcomesReview of UK budget impact on sterling and business confidenceThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Surveying the FX landscape ahead of the US election

<ul><li>The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.</li><li>It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.</li><li>The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is down modestly against the USD on the week, just about holding above 2-year range lows.It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.The shift in CAD-negative variables appears to have stabilized, with the CAD fair value estimate holding around 1.3930 since mid-week. Measured correlations are very weak. Things are not getting worse but they are not getting obviously better for the CAD. Reaching to clutch a couple of CADpositive straws, the TRIX oscillator is rolling over more clearly. It has done a decent job of catching broader peaks and troughs in USDCAD recently. And, looking back over the past few years, the USD has tended to peak around this time of the year and these sorts of levels (October 2022 ~ 1.3977 and November 2023 ~ 1.39).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Mixed but Stable into Holiday Break

CFTC data reflects broadly steady positioning in the USD amongst all market participants running into the US Thanksgiving break last week.

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!

Main point:The current positioning picture is becoming increasingly uniform across asset classes: higher US growth, higher USD rates versus...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish EUR Sentiment Strengthens

The latest snapshot of market positioning and investors sentiment on the major currencies form the CFTC shows a further increase in aggregate USD...

Scotiabank

Global FX: Surveying the FX landscape ahead of the US election

Key points from the discussion include election week strategies, potential outcomes on the dollar, analysis of currency pricing, impact of the UK...

At Any Rate

CAD Weekly Outlook - Soft CAD Steadying Near Recent Lows

It is trading a little better than its commodity peers on the week but underperforming slightly versus the EUR, GBP and JPY.

Scotiabank

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