Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.</li>
<li>Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.</li>
<li>A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.</li>
</ul>


The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.
Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.
A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.</li><li>Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.</li><li>We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.</li></ul>

At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

<ul><li>In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.</li><li>We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) Liquidity</li><li>Inflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.</li></ul>

In this piece, we are going to compare the ECB and the Fed case systemically on a set of important parameters to ultimately conclude with our base-case and suggested allocations on the back of it.We will assess the cases on: 1) Inflation 2) Growth 3) Labour 4) LiquidityInflation Watch: The ECB is realistically much closer to claiming victory. As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking

<ul><li>In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies.</li><li>We find the following to be decent risk/rewards:USD-EUR spreads can widen further due to diverging inflation outlooks.</li><li>We see value in March-2024 spreads.</li></ul>

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies.We find the following to be decent risk/rewards:USD-EUR spreads can widen further due to diverging inflation outlooks.We see value in March-2024 spreads.

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...

Phil Rush

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking

As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies. We find the following to...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation

​The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...

Phil Rush

Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?

Looking back over the past 10 years, ECB sentiment into and over October has been more negative than at any other point.

Steno Research

ECB & Fed Watch: Closing in on ECB Rate Cuts, While the Fed Is Not Done Hiking

As we have noted since the early summer, we find the probability of sub-2% inflation in the Euro area much larger than in the US.

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?

In light of the firmer than expected CPI report from the US, we have re-visited our curve views across major currencies. We find the following to...

Steno Research

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% while warning of a possible rise later. Higher inflation forecasts and excessive wage settlements...