Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul>
<li>As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.</li>
<li>Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.</li>
<li>Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.</li>
</ul>


As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.
Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.
Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.


Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>European banks opted to hold rates steady and their statements were more dovish than the Fed. ECB and BoE statements suggested rates would need to stay elevated for some time. </li>
<li>EU and UK economies are slowing sharply which draws concerns over how long rates can stay elevated without their economies tilting into recession.</li>
<li>UK and EU equities reacted negatively to the announcements while commodities rallied. Bond markets were largely unchanged. EUR and GBP outperformed JPY after the announcements while DXY fell further. </li>
</ul>


European banks opted to hold rates steady and their statements were more dovish than the Fed. ECB and BoE statements suggested rates would need to stay elevated for some time. 
EU and UK economies are slowing sharply which draws concerns over how long rates can stay elevated without their economies tilting into recession.
UK and EU equities reacted negatively to the announcements while commodities rallied. Bond markets were largely unchanged. EUR and GBP outperformed JPY after the announcements while DXY fell further. 


Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

<ul><li>USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.</li><li>I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.</li><li>The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.</li></ul>

USD markets felt almost EM like for a couple of hours after Jay Powell and the committee allowed markets to chase the cutting narrative by communicating three expected cuts in the dot plot for 2024.I am not always convinced that the dot plot is a wise guidance tool as policy makers likely judge that a dot signaling three cuts relative to market pricing (ahead of the meeting) hinting of more than four cuts net/net should lead to a hawkish surprise.The opposite of course happened since narrative chasers in markets rather look at the sequential move than the nominal forecast.

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

<ul>
<li>FOMC decided to hold rates steady and their statement suggested that members were not expecting further rate hikes. </li>
<li>FOMC's economic projections suggest 3 rate cuts next year as well as a soft landing for the US economy, reaffirming market view.</li>
<li>Equities surge while dollar falls and bond-yields fall to multi-month low. Gold and Silver rally sharply. EUR and GBP rally but underperform relative to JPY and AUD. </li>
</ul>


FOMC decided to hold rates steady and their statement suggested that members were not expecting further rate hikes. 
FOMC's economic projections suggest 3 rate cuts next year as well as a soft landing for the US economy, reaffirming market view.
Equities surge while dollar falls and bond-yields fall to multi-month low. Gold and Silver rally sharply. EUR and GBP rally but underperform relative to JPY and AUD. 


Mint Macro Roundup: Powell Has Gifted Fed Pivot. Markets in Merry. What to Expect from ECB and BoE?

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Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Cuts by March? We are not dismissive, but we would deem it close to fantastic if the Fed communications manage to pivot the economy without pushing...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

European banks hold rates steady, but concerns arise over slowing economies and the need to keep rates elevated. Equities dip, commodities rise.

Mint Finance

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: Powell Has Gifted Fed Pivot. Markets in Merry. What to Expect from ECB and BoE?

FOMC holds rates steady, signaling no further hikes. Economic projections hint at rate cuts and a soft landing for US economy. Equities rise,...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Cuts by March? We are not dismissive, but we would deem it close to fantastic if the Fed communications manage to pivot the economy without pushing...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: BoE and ECB Policy Meetings

​European banks hold rates steady, but concerns arise over slowing economies and the need to keep rates elevated. Equities dip, commodities rise.

Mint Finance

Central Bank Review: Powell, a Genius or a Madman? 2024 Looks like a Year of Fat Tails

We reiterate that the steepener trade is the best risk/reward in Macro space accordingly as it likes both (fat) tail scenarios.

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: Powell Has Gifted Fed Pivot. Markets in Merry. What to Expect from ECB and BoE?

​FOMC holds rates steady, signaling no further hikes. Economic projections hint at rate cuts and a soft landing for US economy. Equities rise,...

Mint Finance

European banks hold rates steady, but concerns arise over slowing economies and the need to keep rates elevated. Equities dip, commodities rise.

FOMC holds rates steady, signaling no further hikes. Economic projections hint at rate cuts and a soft landing for US economy. Equities rise,...