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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.</li><li>This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).</li><li>These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn) and Speculative Accounts retain a net short USD position on aggregate of USD12.5bn.This is little changed over the past three weeks, perhaps reflecting light, summer trading. Real Money Accounts retain a sizeable aggregate USD short position (USD38bn, up a little under USD2bn on the week) while Leveraged Accounts reversed a small, aggregate USD short position to a minor net long (USD5bn).These hedge fund traders have tended to hold a similarly sized net USD long on aggregate since March.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome back to the weekly Positioning Watch, where we crunch through the positioning data and point out the biggest positioning trends in global markets.</li><li>Main takeaway: Bond bears had a significant setback this week following a mild inflation report – and that comes after a substantial surge in yields the previous week.</li><li>Now, we eagerly examine the market’s repositioning here in the aftermath of the reversal.</li></ul>

Welcome back to the weekly Positioning Watch, where we crunch through the positioning data and point out the biggest positioning trends in global markets.Main takeaway: Bond bears had a significant setback this week following a mild inflation report – and that comes after a substantial surge in yields the previous week.Now, we eagerly examine the market’s repositioning here in the aftermath of the reversal.

Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.</li>
<li>China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.</li>
</ul>


Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.
China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.


Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.</li><li>Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.</li><li>What makes Norway and the UK stand out?</li></ul>

We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.What makes Norway and the UK stand out?

Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.</li><li>Raising rates by 50 bps was a step in the right direction.</li><li>The headline June and July CPI may appear lower due to the base effect of Energy prices.</li></ul>

The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.Raising rates by 50 bps was a step in the right direction.The headline June and July CPI may appear lower due to the base effect of Energy prices.

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative USD Sentiment Improves Slightly

CFTC positioning data show a second successive improvement in speculative USD sentiment but the improvement is limited (less than USD500mn)

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?

Welcome back to the weekly Positioning Watch, where we crunch through the positioning data and point out the biggest positioning trends in global...

Steno Research

Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Markets are incredibly eager to discount lower inflation, pushing the Fear & Frenzy Sentiment further into Frenzy territory.

Jeroen Blokland

Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that...

Steno Research

GBP Crosses, Banks and Rates

The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.

Untying The Gordian Knot

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