Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK retail retreated from its highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Warmth spared sales from a total washout.</li>
<li>This decline returns values to their upward trend while volumes are at their six-month average, consistent with our view that the volume trend has flatlined.</li>
<li>Second-Round effects support short-term activity and asset prices, including housing, where a crash looks to have been avoided. We still don’t expect substantial falls.</li>
</ul>


UK retail retreated from its highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Warmth spared sales from a total washout.
This decline returns values to their upward trend while volumes are at their six-month average, consistent with our view that the volume trend has flatlined.
Second-Round effects support short-term activity and asset prices, including housing, where a crash looks to have been avoided. We still don’t expect substantial falls.


<ul>
<li>Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.</li>
<li>This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.</li>
<li>Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.</li>
</ul>


Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.
This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.
Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.


<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate increased back to 3.8% in Feb-23 as an unusually actively unemployed cohort joined the sample. The underlying trend remains broadly flat.</li>
<li>Vacancies are high, encouraging firms to pay up to hire and retain staff. Revisions into rapid Feb-23 wage growth remove signs of a slowdown.</li>
<li>Settlements are anchoring around 5%, with a skew up, fuelling problematic second-round effects. We maintain our call for the BoE to hike by another 25bp in May.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate increased back to 3.8% in Feb-23 as an unusually actively unemployed cohort joined the sample. The underlying trend remains broadly flat.
Vacancies are high, encouraging firms to pay up to hire and retain staff. Revisions into rapid Feb-23 wage growth remove signs of a slowdown.
Settlements are anchoring around 5%, with a skew up, fuelling problematic second-round effects. We maintain our call for the BoE to hike by another 25bp in May.


Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in Nov-22, and another rise into yearend no longer looks likely. Resilience should ease in Q1 amid vacancies’ renewed declines.</li>
<li>Relatively stable unemployment and rising wage settlements suggest the cycle is not yet burning out. Pay growth trends remain inconsistent with the inflation target.</li>
<li>Monetary policy faces a double threat from excessive inflation expectations and cyclical pressures. We still expect another forceful (50bp) response in February.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in Nov-22, and another rise into yearend no longer looks likely. Resilience should ease in Q1 amid vacancies’ renewed declines.
Relatively stable unemployment and rising wage settlements suggest the cycle is not yet burning out. Pay growth trends remain inconsistent with the inflation target.
Monetary policy faces a double threat from excessive inflation expectations and cyclical pressures. We still expect another forceful (50bp) response in February.


United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

UK: Sales Soaked in Mar-23

UK retail retreated from highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Volumes are at their six-month...

Phil Rush

UK: Inflation Incinerating BoE Hopes

Excessive UK inflationary pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s February forecast incinerating their dovish...

Phil Rush

UK: Wages Reflate Hawkish Pressure

UK vacancies are high, encouraging firms to pay up to hire and retain staff. Revisions into rapid Feb-23 wage growth remove signs of a slowdown. We...

Phil Rush

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

UK: Workers Demand Forceful Tightening

The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% and no longer looks likely to rise into yearend. Pay trends are inconsistent with the inflation target,...

Phil Rush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)