Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning.</li><li>Extreme base effects are at play in October due to energy price revisions in October 2022</li><li>Housing and household services are about to turn negative year over year </li></ul>

Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning.Extreme base effects are at play in October due to energy price revisions in October 2022Housing and household services are about to turn negative year over year 

UK CPI Watch: No Path to 2% Unless Inflation Deflates on a Monthly Basis

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.</li><li>The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD continues to consolidate/correct recent losses.</li><li>The DXY has regained the upper 105 area so far on the session, reflecting some mild gains in US Treasury yields and little else.</li><li>Recall that, from a technical point of view at least, the DXY could/should recover to the 106.50 area to fill the gap left on the intraday/daily chart after last week’s slide. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD continues to consolidate/correct recent losses.The DXY has regained the upper 105 area so far on the session, reflecting some mild gains in US Treasury yields and little else.Recall that, from a technical point of view at least, the DXY could/should recover to the 106.50 area to fill the gap left on the intraday/daily chart after last week’s slide. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily – USD Holds Gains in Quiet Trade

<ul><li>USD consolidation yesterday after hefty losses last week have developed into more gains on the session so far today.</li><li>Stocks are a bit softer, bonds are better supported, with European fixed income outperforming modestly, while crude prices have dropped back.</li><li>Fed President Kashkari commented late yesterday that it was “too soon to declare victory over inflation”, helping add to the USD’s rebound.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD consolidation yesterday after hefty losses last week have developed into more gains on the session so far today.Stocks are a bit softer, bonds are better supported, with European fixed income outperforming modestly, while crude prices have dropped back.Fed President Kashkari commented late yesterday that it was “too soon to declare victory over inflation”, helping add to the USD’s rebound.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies, Focus Turns to Fed Speakers

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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UK CPI Watch: No Path to 2% Unless Inflation Deflates on a Monthly Basis

Welcome to our short and chart-packed preview of UK inflation out tomorrow morning. The BoE is probably the most mispriced central bank in G10

Steno Research

Foreign Exchange Outlook - November 2023

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies. The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily – USD Holds Gains in Quiet Trade

The USD continues to consolidate/correct recent losses. The DXY has regained the upper 105 area so far on the session, reflecting some mild gains...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Steadies, Focus Turns to Fed Speakers

Stocks are a bit softer, bonds are better supported, with European fixed income outperforming modestly, while crude prices have dropped back.

Scotiabank

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

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