Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).</li>
<li>IF <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a> trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.</li>
<li>Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>


We know that Bain knew that their mid-September overbid for Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) did not meet the so-called KDDI Threshold, yet they made that bid anyway (¥3,720 vs EQT's ¥3,680).
IF Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) trades wide, consider going long the arb, but generally, need to participate unless it does trade wide. There're other more interesting deals out there.
Despite the lower-than-expected bid optics compared to prior negotiations, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)'s Offer looks done. All ducks are lined up. Just a question of timing on regulatory approvals.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>On 6 Feb, eight Chinese regulatory authorities jointly issued a notice on further preventing and addressing risks relevant to digital currencies (Yinfa No.42), reaffirming China’s restrictive stance on crypto trading and tightening oversight on tokenized real-world asset (RWA) and overseas issuance of RMB-referenced stablecoin.</li><li>The CSRC then followed with new practical regulatory guidelines for the tokenization of domestic assets issued overseas as asset-backed securities.</li><li>We believe the highlight of the notice lies in its first official definition of RWA by Chinese regulators and the establishment of a clear regulatory framework for domestic companies in pursuit of overseas RWA issuance. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

On 6 Feb, eight Chinese regulatory authorities jointly issued a notice on further preventing and addressing risks relevant to digital currencies (Yinfa No.42), reaffirming China’s restrictive stance on crypto trading and tightening oversight on tokenized real-world asset (RWA) and overseas issuance of RMB-referenced stablecoin.The CSRC then followed with new practical regulatory guidelines for the tokenization of domestic assets issued overseas as asset-backed securities.We believe the highlight of the notice lies in its first official definition of RWA by Chinese regulators and the establishment of a clear regulatory framework for domestic companies in pursuit of overseas RWA issuance. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Moves from a Blanket Ban on Crypto-Related to Tailored Rules for Tokenized RWAs

<ul>
<li>For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.</li>
<li>
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For September 2026, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$26bn.

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in September was ~46%; and a year-to-date average of ~45%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-lithium-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34827:1" rel="noopener">Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobayashi-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14930:1" rel="noopener">Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ofx-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8376:1" rel="noopener">OFX Group (OFX AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changhong-jiahua-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5849:1" rel="noopener">Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ajinomoto-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12499:1" rel="noopener">Ajinomoto Malaysia (AJI MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Global Lithium Resources Ltd (GL1 AU), IDP Education (IEL AU), and Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co (4967 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: OFX Group (OFX AU),Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Ajinomoto Malaysia (AJI MK), Carnaby Resources (CNB AU), and Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Hong Kong

Guotai Junan International is an integrated financial service provider offering wealth management, institutional investor services, corporate finance, and investment management. Its diverse offerings include brokerage, asset management, and digital asset trading. The company was established in Hong Kong in 1993 and is headquartered there.

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Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

For the month of Sept, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma, with an overall deal size of ~US$26bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Kakaku.com, Sankei Real Estate, ReNew Energy Global, Korea Aerospace Ind

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

China Moves from a Blanket Ban on Crypto-Related to Tailored Rules for Tokenized RWAs

On 6 Feb, eight Chinese regulatory authorities jointly issued a notice on further preventing and addressing risks relevant to digital currencies...

CMB International

Asia-Pac M&A [Sept 2026 Wrap]: Northern Star, Kadoya Sesame, Ingenia, Leopalace21, IDP, Sharingtech

For the month of Sept, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma, with an overall deal size of ~US$26bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Kobayashi Pharma, Global Lithium, IDP, OFX, Ajinomoto, Reliance Worldwide

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...