External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with positive momentum over 2Q.</li><li>Considering the price gap between beer and other alcoholic drinks, and also the growing preference of low alcoholic content, in our view, breweries still offer a multi-year story that looks to be sustainable in the next 4-5 years.</li><li>In the contrary, we continue to see near-term drags in baijiu, dairies and condiments that not only led to a lacklustre 2Q but also a possible slow 2H. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with positive momentum over 2Q.Considering the price gap between beer and other alcoholic drinks, and also the growing preference of low alcoholic content, in our view, breweries still offer a multi-year story that looks to be sustainable in the next 4-5 years.In the contrary, we continue to see near-term drags in baijiu, dairies and condiments that not only led to a lacklustre 2Q but also a possible slow 2H. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>We believe the recent underperformance of A-share consumer staples is unjustified. Their 1Q23 results are generally decent despite negative impact from the pandemic in Jan 2023.</li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanxi-xinghuacun-fen-wine-factory-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9288:1" rel="noopener">Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-jian-anjoy-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30110:1" rel="noopener">Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co Ltd (603345 CH)</a> witnessed good revenue growth and margin expansion. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH)</a> have less satisfactory revenue and margin. Nonetheless, all four companies exhibited good operating cost control. </li>
</ul>


We believe the recent underperformance of A-share consumer staples is unjustified. Their 1Q23 results are generally decent despite negative impact from the pandemic in Jan 2023.
Both Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co Ltd (603345 CH) witnessed good revenue growth and margin expansion. 

Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH) have less satisfactory revenue and margin. Nonetheless, all four companies exhibited good operating cost control. 


China A-Share Consumer Staples: Depressed Share Price Cannot Reflect Decent Earnings

<ul>
<li>Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austasia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36655:1" rel="noopener">AustAsia Group (2425 HK)</a> should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. </li>
<li>Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. </li>
<li>Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Disappointing FY22 result from raw milk company AustAsia Group (2425 HK) should be well expected, but the issue is its guidance that FY23 industry outlook will stay challenging. 
Raw milk price is still coming down and 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow. Capacity influx will disrupt demand-supply balance, but feed costs pressure seems to have moderated. 
Consensus profit projections for the sector are overly optimistic and there is earnings downgrade risk after FY22 result announcement. We will shy away in the near term.


China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

<ul>
<li>With an average gain of 26.3%, China's A-share consumer staples outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by significant margins in the last three months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanxi-xinghuacun-fen-wine-factory-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9288:1" rel="noopener">Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-jian-anjoy-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30110:1" rel="noopener">Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co Ltd (603345 CH)</a> both issued express announcement on decent 4Q22 and FY22 results.</li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)</a> are likely to have weak 4Q22, but outlook for FY23 should improve.</li>
</ul>


With an average gain of 26.3%, China's A-share consumer staples outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by significant margins in the last three months.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co (600809 CH) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co Ltd (603345 CH) both issued express announcement on decent 4Q22 and FY22 results.
Both Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH) are likely to have weak 4Q22, but outlook for FY23 should improve.


China A-Share Consumer Staples: Good Outperformance

<ul><li>We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.</li><li>In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.</li><li>Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had positive takeaways on F&amp;B demand over the New Year holiday break from our chancel check with distributors.In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD.Dairies (including IMF) had a good recovery despite a relatively high inventory level. Both packaged snacks and instant noodle had good momentum.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with...

CMB International

China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Outlook for the raw milk industry stays challenging in FY23. Raw milk price is still coming down, 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Consumer Staples – Divergence continues

We had diverging takeaways from our distributor chancel check after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with beer being the only segment with...

CMB International

China A-Share Consumer Staples: Depressed Share Price Cannot Reflect Decent Earnings

Recent underperformace of A-share consumer staples are not justified, given their generally solid 1Q23 results. All of them achieved good operating...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Raw Milk Industry: Takeaways from AustAsia (2425 HK) Call

Outlook for the raw milk industry stays challenging in FY23. Raw milk price is still coming down, 1H23 dairy product demand recovery is slow and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China A-Share Consumer Staples: Good Outperformance

China's A-share consumer staples outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by significant margins in the last three months; and we expect their...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Consumer – Positive Takeaway from F&B Distributors

In view of the strong foot traffic and hence gifting demand, Baijiu and Beer exceeded expectation, followed by soft drinks and RTD

CMB International