Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.</li>
<li>61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.
61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.
Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures rose to USD 102.14/ton, peaking at USD 104.60, but ended below key levels, reflecting a restrained rally amid low volatility.</li>
<li>China’s expected fiscal stimulus announcement on November 8 could significantly impact iron ore prices, especially as inventories increase, posing demand risks.</li>
<li>Bullish sentiment in iron ore options is evident, with a rising demand for calls at the USD 105 strike, signaling bullish positioning ahead of the parliament meeting.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures rose to USD 102.14/ton, peaking at USD 104.60, but ended below key levels, reflecting a restrained rally amid low volatility.
China’s expected fiscal stimulus announcement on November 8 could significantly impact iron ore prices, especially as inventories increase, posing demand risks.
Bullish sentiment in iron ore options is evident, with a rising demand for calls at the USD 105 strike, signaling bullish positioning ahead of the parliament meeting.


IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move

<ul>
<li>Iron Ore prices closed at USD 101.55/ton, largely unchanged after a mid-week slump, buoyed by minor stimulus-driven recovery.</li>
<li>China’s industrial profits dropped 3.5% YoY, with steel mills posting cumulative losses of 34 trillion Yuan from January to September.</li>
<li>Iron Ore portside inventories remain high, declining only slightly by 400k tons, as demand struggles to meet import volumes.</li>
</ul>


Iron Ore prices closed at USD 101.55/ton, largely unchanged after a mid-week slump, buoyed by minor stimulus-driven recovery.
China’s industrial profits dropped 3.5% YoY, with steel mills posting cumulative losses of 34 trillion Yuan from January to September.
Iron Ore portside inventories remain high, declining only slightly by 400k tons, as demand struggles to meet import volumes.


[IO Fundamentals Weekly 2024/43] Stimulus Provides Small Boost to IO; Fundamental Outlook Downbeat

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures closed at $101.55/ton, nearly flat from $101.65 on Monday, within a narrower trading range of $5.35/ton and supported by stimulus anticipation.</li>
<li>Short-Term moving average crossovers and the 100-day moving average indicate a bearish trend, with iron ore prices trading below significant moving averages and pivot points.</li>
<li>The typical backwardation structure has deviated, with April 2025 contracts trading at a premium over November 2024, reflecting stimulus-driven speculation</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures closed at $101.55/ton, nearly flat from $101.65 on Monday, within a narrower trading range of $5.35/ton and supported by stimulus anticipation.
Short-Term moving average crossovers and the 100-day moving average indicate a bearish trend, with iron ore prices trading below significant moving averages and pivot points.
The typical backwardation structure has deviated, with April 2025 contracts trading at a premium over November 2024, reflecting stimulus-driven speculation


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/43] Temporary Stimulus Support; Diverging Term Structure

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures fell for the second consecutive week, closing USD 4.15/ton lower at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct, with a trading range of USD 9.75/ton.</li>
<li>Short-Term moving averages signaled a bearish reversal, with a downward 9-day moving average and failure to break above key pivot points.</li>
<li>Heavy selling pressure and expanded China stimulus measures disappointed market expectations, signaling continued bearish trends with a potential test of USD 97.5/ton support.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures fell for the second consecutive week, closing USD 4.15/ton lower at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct, with a trading range of USD 9.75/ton.
Short-Term moving averages signaled a bearish reversal, with a downward 9-day moving average and failure to break above key pivot points.
Heavy selling pressure and expanded China stimulus measures disappointed market expectations, signaling continued bearish trends with a potential test of USD 97.5/ton support.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/42] Iron Ore Price Reversal Continues

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Heading into the week of China's parliamentary meeting, FEF options volume dropped while IV rose. Options volume favored calls at the 105 strike...

Mint Finance

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move

IO rose modestly last week, bolstered by China's PMI recovery, though key resistance levels held firm. Low HV hints at a potential breakout, with...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals Weekly 2024/43] Stimulus Provides Small Boost to IO; Fundamental Outlook Downbeat

Iron ore prices ticked up on China’s stimulus, but high inventories and weak demand cap recovery. Analysts await potential fiscal boosts from the...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/43] Temporary Stimulus Support; Diverging Term Structure

SGX Iron Ore Futures navigated mixed signals, buoyed by stimulus anticipation but constrained by bearish technical indicators. A shift in the...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/42] Iron Ore Price Reversal Continues

Iron Ore experienced a second consecutive week of decline, with weaker-than-expected Chinese stimulus and bearish technical indicators. heavy...

Mint Finance

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