Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.</li>
<li>China's iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. </li>
<li>The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Anticipation of an extensive stimulus package at China’s Third Plenum, aimed at revitalizing the decelerating economy, is driving a rebound in iron ore prices.
China's iron ore imports have increased by 7% year-over-year despite a 3% decline in steel output, leading to a buildup in inventories on-shore. 
The convergence of technical signals and seasonal trends in the SGX TSI Iron Ore Index suggests a bullish market stance, highlighting potential profit opportunities.


Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

<ul>
<li>Chinese real estate investments fell 10.1% in the first five months of 2024 YoY. New home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 9.5 years in May.</li>
<li>Fresh bank lending in China rebounded well expectations in May. Chinese banks issued 950B yuan (v/s 1.36T yuan issued last May) in new loans last month.</li>
<li>China's consumer inflation held flat in May amid feeble domestic demand, uneven economic recovery, and consumer confidence weakness.</li>
</ul>


Chinese real estate investments fell 10.1% in the first five months of 2024 YoY. New home prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 9.5 years in May.
Fresh bank lending in China rebounded well expectations in May. Chinese banks issued 950B yuan (v/s 1.36T yuan issued last May) in new loans last month.
China's consumer inflation held flat in May amid feeble domestic demand, uneven economic recovery, and consumer confidence weakness.


Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&amp;L based on back tests. </li>
<li>In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha &amp; higher sharpe ratio.</li>
<li>Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, &amp; March based on range.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore prices exhibit seasonality. For select six months being long Iron Ore combined with short positions during other months deliver positive P&amp;L based on back tests. 
In line with prices, realised volatility exhibits seasonality too. Options strategies can exploit this to deliver superior alpha &amp; higher sharpe ratio.
Averages confound extreme variances. Monthly iron ore futures price returns are less volatile during the months of December, February, June, October, &amp; March based on range.


Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul>
<li>According to Graph 1, during the period October 2, 2023 – January 5, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Iron Ore, despite some minor fluctuations.</li>
<li>During the period under consideration, there was a notable increase in the price of iron ore from October 30th until the beginning of November.</li>
<li>Since then, iron prices followed a slight upward trend. The MA-10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-10 from October 30th onwards, whereas on January 5th the two indices ended up very close to one another.</li>
</ul>


According to Graph 1, during the period October 2, 2023 – January 5, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Iron Ore, despite some minor fluctuations.
During the period under consideration, there was a notable increase in the price of iron ore from October 30th until the beginning of November.
Since then, iron prices followed a slight upward trend. The MA-10 was recorded to perform higher than MA-10 from October 30th onwards, whereas on January 5th the two indices ended up very close to one another.


Commodity Analysis - Iron Ore TIOc1 Futures

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018</li>
<li>This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures</li>
<li>Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore</li>
<li>More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer</li>
<li>Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked</li>
</ul><section><div id="ember4041"><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div></div></div></div></section>


TMI's short-term iron ore sentiment indicator has turned negative while steel sentiment holds up; a divergence of this magnitude hasn't been observed since 2018
This dynamic appears to be driven by recent Chinese steel shutdowns on environmental grounds, which the market perceives as aimed at cooling the iron ore price more so than the typical "anti-pollution" measures
Text mining shows a recent +2x STDEV increase in Chinese media mentions of steel in an environmental context, seen as supportive for steel prices but potentially negative for iron ore
More alarmingly, we are seeing a +2x STDEV spike in discussion of iron ore in a policy context, as Chinese authorities appear to be more attuned to CISA's complaint that foreign iron ore miners are disproportionately benefiting from the recovery while Chinese steelmakers suffer
Although underlying activity levels remain strong, the combination of punitive policies and an improving supply picture suggests tightness in iron ore may have peaked
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

China's anticipated stimulus package at the Third Plenum is boosting iron ore prices, despite a buildup in inventories and decline in steel...

Mint Finance

Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

Chinese home prices fell fastest in 9.5 years in May. Domestic loan issuances were well below lowered expectations. Inventory remains elevated....

Mint Finance

Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Iron ore futures prices exhibit seasonality. Harnessing seasonality using SGX Iron Ore Futures delivers a success rate of 63% (positive P&L in 57...

Mint Finance

Commodity Analysis - Iron Ore TIOc1 Futures

According to Graph 1, during the period October 2, 2023 – January 5, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Iron Ore,...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

TMI

Elan Gore

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Prices on Fire on Hopes of China’s Third Plenum

​China's anticipated stimulus package at the Third Plenum is boosting iron ore prices, despite a buildup in inventories and decline in steel...

Mint Finance

Persistent Weakness in Chinese Real Estate Will Drag Iron Ore Prices Down

Chinese home prices fell fastest in 9.5 years in May. Domestic loan issuances were well below lowered expectations. Inventory remains elevated....

Mint Finance

Harvesting Seasonality in Iron Ore Prices Induced by Weather, Inventory Restocking, and Holidays

Iron ore futures prices exhibit seasonality. Harnessing seasonality using SGX Iron Ore Futures delivers a success rate of 63% (positive P&L in 57...

Mint Finance

Commodity Analysis - Iron Ore TIOc1 Futures

According to Graph 1, during the period October 2, 2023 – January 5, 2023, an overall bullish trend was reflected in the prices of Iron Ore,...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

TMI Indicators: Iron Ore Sentiment Deteriorates As Increased Policy Focus Drives Greater Caution

TMI

Elan Gore

China's anticipated stimulus package at the Third Plenum is boosting iron ore prices, despite a buildup in inventories and decline in steel...