Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

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Commodities

<ul>
<li>China’s CPI plunged 0.1% YoY in May-25, while producer prices declined by 3.3% driven by softening domestic demand and US tariff tensions. </li>
<li>China’s iron ore imports declined due to seasonal factors and early clearances, while strong steel exports may pressure prices amid front-loaded global supply.</li>
<li>Iron ore portside inventories fell further in early June, but weakening demand and slower pick-up volumes may soon reverse the trend and pressure prices.</li>
</ul>


China’s CPI plunged 0.1% YoY in May-25, while producer prices declined by 3.3% driven by softening domestic demand and US tariff tensions. 
China’s iron ore imports declined due to seasonal factors and early clearances, while strong steel exports may pressure prices amid front-loaded global supply.
Iron ore portside inventories fell further in early June, but weakening demand and slower pick-up volumes may soon reverse the trend and pressure prices.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/23] Deflation Concerns and Declining Portside Inventories

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

<ul>
<li>Iron ore supply remains steady despite falling Australian exports and surging Brazilian shipments. However, weak Chinese property demand continues to cloud the market outlook.</li>
<li>Analysts at Singapore Ferrous Week trimmed 2025 iron ore surplus forecasts to 20–30 million tons, citing resilient demand, rising steel exports, and Australian supply disruptions.</li>
<li>Prices remain below key moving averages, signalling downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line reinforces the ongoing bearish outlook.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore supply remains steady despite falling Australian exports and surging Brazilian shipments. However, weak Chinese property demand continues to cloud the market outlook.
Analysts at Singapore Ferrous Week trimmed 2025 iron ore surplus forecasts to 20–30 million tons, citing resilient demand, rising steel exports, and Australian supply disruptions.
Prices remain below key moving averages, signalling downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line reinforces the ongoing bearish outlook.


[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists

<ul>
<li>China's NBS manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May, while Caixin PMI dropped sharply to 48.3 signaling the first contraction in 8 months. </li>
<li>China’s industrial profits stagnated in April 2025, highlighting persistent challenges from weak demand, trade war tensions, and deflationary pressures.</li>
<li>Iron ore inventories continued to decline amid slowing shipments and softer blast furnace demand, signaling ongoing destocking.  </li>
</ul>


China's NBS manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May, while Caixin PMI dropped sharply to 48.3 signaling the first contraction in 8 months. 
China’s industrial profits stagnated in April 2025, highlighting persistent challenges from weak demand, trade war tensions, and deflationary pressures.
Iron ore inventories continued to decline amid slowing shipments and softer blast furnace demand, signaling ongoing destocking.  


[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories

<ul>
<li>Disappointing industrial production and consumer spending data from China, along with stagnant new housing prices, dampened investor sentiment.</li>
<li>Steel consumption remains robust even amid China’s property sector woes, as elevated mill activity and profitability at 60% of blast-furnace plants highlight the market’s core strength.</li>
<li>On the technical front, current prices remain above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a positive short-to-mid-term trend.</li>
</ul>


Disappointing industrial production and consumer spending data from China, along with stagnant new housing prices, dampened investor sentiment.
Steel consumption remains robust even amid China’s property sector woes, as elevated mill activity and profitability at 60% of blast-furnace plants highlight the market’s core strength.
On the technical front, current prices remain above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a positive short-to-mid-term trend.


[IO Technicals 2025/21] Bullish Momentum to Persist

<ul>
<li>China’s industrial output grew 6.1% YoY in April 2025, surpassing expectations but slowing from March’s 7.7% surge, as the economy sustained steady growth amid complex domestic and external challenges. </li>
<li>Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, missing expectations despite government stimulus. Cautious consumer sentiment persists amid economic challenges, subdued income growth, and concerns over U.S. tariffs.</li>
<li>Easing U.S.-China tensions are boosting Chinese market confidence, driving up steel production and iron ore demand. With inventories thinning, spot buyers may bid aggressively, lifting prices in the near term.</li>
</ul>


China’s industrial output grew 6.1% YoY in April 2025, surpassing expectations but slowing from March’s 7.7% surge, as the economy sustained steady growth amid complex domestic and external challenges. 
Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, missing expectations despite government stimulus. Cautious consumer sentiment persists amid economic challenges, subdued income growth, and concerns over U.S. tariffs.
Easing U.S.-China tensions are boosting Chinese market confidence, driving up steel production and iron ore demand. With inventories thinning, spot buyers may bid aggressively, lifting prices in the near term.


[IO Fundamentals 2025/20] US Tariffs Weigh on China’s April Economic Performance

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Fundamentals 2025/23] Deflation Concerns and Declining Portside Inventories

Persistent deflation and weak consumer demand raise doubts over Beijing’s stimulus playbook, while iron ore faces renewed pressure from slowing...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists

Iron ore outlook remains murky as weak Chinese demand offsets resilient global supply. Bearish technical signals and surplus forecasts add to near...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories

Conflicting PMI readings, flatlining industrial profits, and falling iron ore inventories paint a nuanced picture of China’s economic pulse amid...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals 2025/21] Bullish Momentum to Persist

Despite weak macro data from China, iron ore prices remain buoyed by resilient steel demand, with profitability and output strength pointing to...

Mint Finance

[IO Fundamentals 2025/20] US Tariffs Weigh on China’s April Economic Performance

April data reveals robust manufacturing output despite deceleration, cautious consumer spending despite policy support, and a notable drop in loan...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)