Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>China's economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. </li>
<li>China's March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. </li>
<li>Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. </li>
</ul>


China's economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. 
China's March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. 
Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. 


[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

<ul>
<li>Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.</li>
<li>Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.</li>
<li>Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).</li>
</ul>


Managed Money switched to net short, Physicals switched to net long while FIs increased net long positions last week.
Prices touched a high of $99.25/ton on 17/Apr and a low of $96.55/ton on 14/Apr. It traded in a range of $2.70/ton during the week.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures May contract trades 23.8% below its last 5-year average ($128.37/ton).


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.</li>
<li>U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.</li>
<li>Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. </li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%. 


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

<ul>
<li>SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.</li>
<li>Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.</li>
</ul>


SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.
Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.
Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures declined by USD 1.75/ton last week, closing at USD 100.45/ton on March 7, trading within a narrower USD 3.90/ton range.</li>
<li>Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with a death cross, MACD signaling weakness, and RSI nearing oversold conditions at 36.61.</li>
<li>Market sentiment remains fragile due to China’s steel production cuts, declining imports, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite potential stimulus measures.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures declined by USD 1.75/ton last week, closing at USD 100.45/ton on March 7, trading within a narrower USD 3.90/ton range.
Technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, with a death cross, MACD signaling weakness, and RSI nearing oversold conditions at 36.61.
Market sentiment remains fragile due to China’s steel production cuts, declining imports, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, despite potential stimulus measures.


[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

Price Gauge
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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

China's economy beats forecasts in Q1 2025 with strong growth in exports, retail sales, and factory output, despite US-China trade tensions. IO...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Managed Money went net short even as Physicals went net long. Prices fluctuated between 96.55-99.25. SGX IO Futures May contract is trading 23.8%...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

IO slid amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, technical indicators flash deeper downside risk. This paper outlines a directionally neutral...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

Iron ore gained on seasonal demand and easing macro concerns, with technical indicators flashing bullish. Falling IV and rising institutional long...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts

Iron Ore Futures fell last week amid China’s steel cuts and trade tensions. Bearish technical signals and weak demand suggest further downside,...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[IO Fundamentals 16/2025] Robust China Data and Shrinking IO Inventories

​China's economy beats forecasts in Q1 2025 with strong growth in exports, retail sales, and factory output, despite US-China trade tensions. IO...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

​Managed Money went net short even as Physicals went net long. Prices fluctuated between 96.55-99.25. SGX IO Futures May contract is trading 23.8%...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/​14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

IO slid amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, technical indicators flash deeper downside risk. This paper outlines a directionally neutral...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

Iron ore gained on seasonal demand and easing macro concerns, with technical indicators flashing bullish. Falling IV and rising institutional long...

Mint Finance

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/10]: Bearish Signals Deepen in IO Amid China’s Steel Production Cuts

Iron Ore Futures fell last week amid China’s steel cuts and trade tensions. Bearish technical signals and weak demand suggest further downside,...

Mint Finance

China's economy beats forecasts in Q1 2025 with strong growth in exports, retail sales, and factory output, despite US-China trade tensions. IO...

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: Price Bearishness to Persist

Managed Money went net short even as Physicals went net long. Prices fluctuated between 96.55-99.25. SGX IO Futures May contract is trading 23.8%...

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions