Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a>.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-January 2023.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-January 2023.


<ul>
<li>There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: MBK and Unison Capital MBO-style Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem Implant (048260 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec (6669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco  (8595 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: MBK and Unison Capital MBO-style Tender Offer for Osstem Implant (048260 KS).
Key updates took place for: Warrego (WGO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Acotec (6669 HK), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP), Jafco  (8595 JP), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Osstem, Warrego, Norwest Energy, Acotec, Sabana, Jafco, Toyo

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> announced the results of its Tender Offer Buyback today. They wanted to buy 16.8mm shares including 13.9mm from Murakami-san. He sold 9.63mm. Oops. </li>
<li>Pro-Ration was 69.25% which means that Murakami entities are still long about 4.276mm shares or 5.83% of shares out. </li>
<li>There should be some index selling, and some Murakami Overhang. There may be more overhang at recent prices.</li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced the results of its Tender Offer Buyback today. They wanted to buy 16.8mm shares including 13.9mm from Murakami-san. He sold 9.63mm. Oops. 
Pro-Ration was 69.25% which means that Murakami entities are still long about 4.276mm shares or 5.83% of shares out. 
There should be some index selling, and some Murakami Overhang. There may be more overhang at recent prices.


JAFCO Tender Offer Results - Low Pro-Ration Surprise, Murakami Overhang

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

For the month of January, four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Jan 2023

There are 45 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs presented in the current Leaderboard and I expect the Potential ADDs to outperform the Potential...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Osstem, Warrego, Norwest Energy, Acotec, Sabana, Jafco, Toyo

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

JAFCO Tender Offer Results - Low Pro-Ration Surprise, Murakami Overhang

JAFCO's Greenmail Buyback Tender Offer "surprised" by a low pro-ration. Given the borrow tightness and Murakami-san's sale, I was not surprised,...

Travis Lundy

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