Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> Greenmail Tender Offer to take Murakami-san out of his position is nearing its close. </li>
<li>Investors should make a decision imminently about where they believe the stock should trade in Price/NAV terms after the buyback is complete, once management is "stabilised."</li>
<li>My earlier piece written on the day of the announcement needs a few corrections. Those are below. </li>
</ul>


The Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) Greenmail Tender Offer to take Murakami-san out of his position is nearing its close. 
Investors should make a decision imminently about where they believe the stock should trade in Price/NAV terms after the buyback is complete, once management is "stabilised."
My earlier piece written on the day of the announcement needs a few corrections. Those are below. 


JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent - Decent Conviction to Not Be Long

<ul>
<li>In March 2022, longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.</li>
<li>A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.</li>
<li>By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.</li>
</ul>


In March 2022, longtime Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.
A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.
By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.


Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - Very quiet week as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a> continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conexio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19064:1" rel="noopener">Conexio Corp (9422 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-trading-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13087:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Very quiet week as VinFast (1905332D VN) continues to pre-market a US$1bn IPO.
Event-Driven developments  Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP), Nippon Steel Trading Corporation (9810 JP), Origin Energy (ORG AU), OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (26 Dec) - JAFCO, Nippon Steel Trading, Conexio, Origin Energy, Warrego

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a>,  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. </li>
<li>Game on as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego Energy (WGO AU)</a> shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>'s "superior" scrip proposal. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. </li>
</ul>


For OZ Minerals (OZL AU),  look elsewhere unless you are VERY bullish copper. But if you are VERY bullish copper, buy copper options rather than the embedded option in OZL. 
Game on as Warrego Energy (WGO AU) shareholders weigh the pros and cons of Hancock's all-cash Offer against Strike Energy (STX AU)'s "superior" scrip proposal. 

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) succumbed to greenmail and tried to boost the price to explain the exit they were going to give Murakami-san. It didn't work. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and Murakami have <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/8595/tdnet/2217071/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reached an agreement</a> on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. </li>
<li>The revised tender offer's primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).</li>
<li>The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board's ability to enhance value.</li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
The revised tender offer's primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board's ability to enhance value.


JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

Japan

JAFCO Co., Ltd. forms venture capital groups to invest primarily in domestic and foreign private companies with high potential for future growth.  The Company also provides management services to the groups, makes loans and offers consultation services to the invested companies.

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Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)

JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent - Decent Conviction to Not Be Long

The JAFCO (8595) Greenmail Tender Offer (to get Murakami-san out) close is at hand. Borrow out and volume traded suggest pro-ration < 100%. That...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (26 Dec) - JAFCO, Nippon Steel Trading, Conexio, Origin Energy, Warrego

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Nitro, Norwest, Origin Energy, OZ Minerals, Pendal, Warrego, Fengxiang, Conexio, JAFCO,...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Oz Minerals, Warrego, JAFCO, Swire Pac's A&Bs, Korean Mandatory Offers

The silly season is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This undermines the Board's ability to...

Arun George

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