External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Fitch’s announcement late yesterday that it was cutting the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ caught the market by surprise.</li><li>The decision was unexpected, even though the agency had put the US on ratings watch negative back in May.</li><li>S&amp;P Global cut its sovereign rating for the US back in 2011 and was widely criticized for the decision then. The Fitch downgrade has also been criticized, with Treasury Sec.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fitch’s announcement late yesterday that it was cutting the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ caught the market by surprise.The decision was unexpected, even though the agency had put the US on ratings watch negative back in May.S&amp;P Global cut its sovereign rating for the US back in 2011 and was widely criticized for the decision then. The Fitch downgrade has also been criticized, with Treasury Sec.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Fitch Ratings Cut Not Fatal, but Not Good for the USD

<ul>
<li>Market Update —The USD is trading firmer overall.</li>
<li>Softer equity markets are casting a broadly risk -averse look to FX markets, although bonds have not benefitted from any flight to quality.</li>
<li>Softer than expected Chinese data is weighing on sentiment.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Market Update —The USD is trading firmer overall.
Softer equity markets are casting a broadly risk -averse look to FX markets, although bonds have not benefitted from any flight to quality.
Softer than expected Chinese data is weighing on sentiment.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.</li><li>In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.</li><li>Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.</li></ul>

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will catch up to the rest of the G10 central banks with a tighter policy.In this piece, we look at the pros and cons of moving already this Friday for the Bank of Japan, but let’s take a look at the current back-drop before we move to the actual policy decision.Markets started pricing in an elevated risk of a further increase to the yield-curve-control cap on Friday after a spike in wage data three weeks ago.

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. </li>
<li>Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.</li>
<li>We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.</li>
</ul>


Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. 
Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

FX Snapshot - Fitch Ratings Cut Not Fatal, but Not Good for the USD

Fitch’s announcement late yesterday that it was cutting the US sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA+ caught the market by surprise.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - Risk Off Mood Lifts USD

Market Update —The USD is trading firmer overall. Softer equity markets are casting a broadly risk -averse look to FX markets, although bonds have...

Scotiabank

Japan Watch: The pros and cons for Ueda

The JPY market is one big roller-coaster at the moment as the market constantly tries to sniff out potential clues on when the Bank of Japan will...

Steno Research

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

USD Trade Splinters

Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. Sterling has been our top USD...

Thomas Schroeder

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