Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Friday's market close marked an impulse Dollar reversal pattern (we await confirmation) despite weaker NFP, lower wage growth, and inflation figures.</li><li>The DM currencies were the last to decline against the Dollar, led by Euro and GBP. USDJPY made a low on March 24 and has since made higher lows.</li><li>USDJPY made a low on March 24 and has since made higher lows. Despite the expectations, BoJ will ease the Yield Curve Control policy, leading to higher Yen rates and a stronger Yen.</li></ul>

Friday's market close marked an impulse Dollar reversal pattern (we await confirmation) despite weaker NFP, lower wage growth, and inflation figures.The DM currencies were the last to decline against the Dollar, led by Euro and GBP. USDJPY made a low on March 24 and has since made higher lows.USDJPY made a low on March 24 and has since made higher lows. Despite the expectations, BoJ will ease the Yield Curve Control policy, leading to higher Yen rates and a stronger Yen.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Ueda seems like a centrist candidate compared to Amamiya (dove) or Yamaguchi (hawk)</li>
<li>Ueda, if he gets the nod on Tuesday, is likely to slowly but surely distance himself from YCC</li>
<li>We continue to like JPY on the prospects of tighter USD-JPY rates spreads </li>
</ul>


Ueda seems like a centrist candidate compared to Amamiya (dove) or Yamaguchi (hawk)
Ueda, if he gets the nod on Tuesday, is likely to slowly but surely distance himself from YCC
We continue to like JPY on the prospects of tighter USD-JPY rates spreads 


Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Last week delivered a host of bullish MT USD reversal patterns across USD/G10 and USD/Asia pairs.</li>
<li>USDJPY has responded impulsively to critical LT support around 127.50. February has the potential to confirm a return to the multi-year uptrend with aggressive targets around 175/180.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Last week delivered a host of bullish MT USD reversal patterns across USD/G10 and USD/Asia pairs.
USDJPY has responded impulsively to critical LT support around 127.50. February has the potential to confirm a return to the multi-year uptrend with aggressive targets around 175/180.


USDJPY - Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?

<ul>
<li>Markets price more than 35 bps ahead of the BoJ meeting. Is that too much?</li>
<li>BoJ is not scared of inflation. They fear a lack of market functioning in JGB markets.</li>
<li>JPY may be overbought into the meeting, while USTs are oversold</li>
</ul>


Markets price more than 35 bps ahead of the BoJ meeting. Is that too much?
BoJ is not scared of inflation. They fear a lack of market functioning in JGB markets.
JPY may be overbought into the meeting, while USTs are oversold


Bond Watch - Will Japan Pull the Rug from Under the Yield Curve Control?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135 target.</li>
<li>AUD is near our 0.6850 but could stretch to 0.69. USD/ZAR met the 17.10 PT. Euro target remains at 1.0650 just under the 1.07 MT resistance. USD/KRW 1,298 PT met.</li>
<li>DXY 103 downside target with risk to 102 while aligning the US 10yr yield target of 3.50%/45%. NFP is the swing factor for yield today.</li>
</ul>


Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135 target.
AUD is near our 0.6850 but could stretch to 0.69. USD/ZAR met the 17.10 PT. Euro target remains at 1.0650 just under the 1.07 MT resistance. USD/KRW 1,298 PT met.
DXY 103 downside target with risk to 102 while aligning the US 10yr yield target of 3.50%/45%. NFP is the swing factor for yield today.


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Things to Watch In Asia Pacific FX

Friday's market close marked an impulse Dollar reversal pattern (we await confirmation) despite weaker NFP, lower wage growth, and inflation figures.

Untying The Gordian Knot

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USDJPY - Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Bond Watch - Will Japan Pull the Rug from Under the Yield Curve Control?

It is a BIG week in Japanese central banking history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield...

Steno Research

USD/JPY Target Undershoot

Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135...

Thomas Schroeder

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