Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The slip in US yields has lead the US_Japan yield spread to move lower thereby putting USDJPY out of line with it</li>
<li>The danger is that once month end is over, USDJPY may “catch up” by trending down in the short term</li>
<li>In addition we see price action developments on USDJPY itself that reflects weakness in the uptrend</li>
</ul>


The slip in US yields has lead the US_Japan yield spread to move lower thereby putting USDJPY out of line with it
The danger is that once month end is over, USDJPY may “catch up” by trending down in the short term
In addition we see price action developments on USDJPY itself that reflects weakness in the uptrend


<ul>
<li>Japan is clearly worried about a weaker JPY despite the BoJ's bond  market policy</li>
<li>Could they be saved by external factors - namely a calming down or even reversal of rising US yields?</li>
<li>Historical comparisons as well as developments in commodities and the economy suggests the answer could be yes</li>
</ul>


Japan is clearly worried about a weaker JPY despite the BoJ's bond  market policy
Could they be saved by external factors - namely a calming down or even reversal of rising US yields?
Historical comparisons as well as developments in commodities and the economy suggests the answer could be yes


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>End of May call to buy the USD vs Euro and JPY and rolled into USD longs vs NZD, CNH, KRW and ZAR. USD rally momentum expanding with EM ignition.</li>
<li>DXY saw a more impulsive push as US yields attempt new chart highs. Gains are expected to accelerate going into the Fed.</li>
<li>EM FX is the space to rotate into USD longs given the lag to register secondary lows. Explosive moves are likely.</li>
</ul>


End of May call to buy the USD vs Euro and JPY and rolled into USD longs vs NZD, CNH, KRW and ZAR. USD rally momentum expanding with EM ignition.
DXY saw a more impulsive push as US yields attempt new chart highs. Gains are expected to accelerate going into the Fed.
EM FX is the space to rotate into USD longs given the lag to register secondary lows. Explosive moves are likely.


USD Punch Higher Ahead of the Fed and Where to Rotate

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

<ul>
<li>The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. </li>
<li>Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.</li>
<li>PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.</li>
</ul>


The dollar has strengthened significantly since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led to a broad risk-off environment. Among EM currencies, the worst performer has been the Hungarian forint. 
Adding to the economic woes resulting from Russia's aggression, the forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary tightening even with inflation hitting a two-decade high.
PM Orban has worsened the situation with his pre-election spending and by going against the EU by resisting further sanctions on Russia. Relatedly, funding from the EU is at risk.


Which EM Currency Has Suffered the Most Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

USDJPY Disconnect

The price action on USDJPY & the DXY Index as well as short term developments in the fixed income markets are beginning to warn of a stretched USD...

Shyam Devani

Could the BoJ Be Saved?

The Bank of Japan's concerns about a weakening JPY may be alleviated because of developments in markets outside their control such as commodities...

Shyam Devani

USD Punch Higher Ahead of the Fed and Where to Rotate

End of May call to buy the USD vs Euro and JPY and rolled into USD longs vs NZD, CNH, KRW and ZAR. USD rally momentum expanding with EM ignition.

Thomas Schroeder

Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Which EM Currency Has Suffered the Most Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?

Adding to the economic woes from Russia's aggression, the Hungarian forint has suffered as the central bank has signaled less aggressive monetary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

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