Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.</li>
<li>USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.</li>
<li>USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.</li>
</ul>


USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a conviction short.
USD/INR met the 77.80 target to lock in gains. USD/KRW is a top USD long near trendline at 1,265/70.
USD/CNH pullback support at 6.70. AUD short zone lifted on SPX and RSI alignment. SPX flat breakout points will drive the USD in coming sessions.


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>In line with my view that the dollar remains strong in the near term, one of the trading strategies that I have suggested is relative-value trades within EM currencies.</li>
<li>The volatility of EM currencies continues to rise, which in theory is supportive of relative-value trades as such environments are usually accompanied by wide dispersion among EM currencies. </li>
<li>However, I find that cross-correlations among EM currencies have risen, leading to a narrowing of dispersion between them, which means the environment is no longer supportive of relative-value trades.</li>
</ul>


In line with my view that the dollar remains strong in the near term, one of the trading strategies that I have suggested is relative-value trades within EM currencies.
The volatility of EM currencies continues to rise, which in theory is supportive of relative-value trades as such environments are usually accompanied by wide dispersion among EM currencies. 
However, I find that cross-correlations among EM currencies have risen, leading to a narrowing of dispersion between them, which means the environment is no longer supportive of relative-value trades.


Is the Environment Supportive of EM FX Relative-Value Trades?

Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

<ul>
<li>Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. </li>
<li>Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. </li>
<li>But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).</li>
</ul>


Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. 
Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. 
But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

<ul>
<li>If earlier charts are correct in suggesting lower US long end yields in the short term then USDJPY is vulnerable</li>
<li>So far it has failed twice at 116.35 thereby creating the possibility of a double top</li>
<li>Support is seen at 113.47 followed by a range of levels between 112.14 and 112.53</li>
</ul>


If earlier charts are correct in suggesting lower US long end yields in the short term then USDJPY is vulnerable
So far it has failed twice at 116.35 thereby creating the possibility of a double top
Support is seen at 113.47 followed by a range of levels between 112.14 and 112.53


<ul>
<li>Yen depreciated about 13% vs Dollar in 12 months to 4 January but has since rebounded about 1% in NEER terms. We expect trade deficit to stabilise in coming months. </li>
<li>“Safe-Haven” Yen also driven by capital outflows and global sentiment, as proxied by S&amp;P 500. But perception that Yen is funding currency for EM has not held true since mid-2020.</li>
<li>Our near-term scenario, premised on lower US equities, is of modest Yen NEER appreciation. Monthly seasonality has historically been negligible in February.</li>
</ul>


Yen depreciated about 13% vs Dollar in 12 months to 4 January but has since rebounded about 1% in NEER terms. We expect trade deficit to stabilise in coming months. 
“Safe-Haven” Yen also driven by capital outflows and global sentiment, as proxied by S&amp;P 500. But perception that Yen is funding currency for EM has not held true since mid-2020.
Our near-term scenario, premised on lower US equities, is of modest Yen NEER appreciation. Monthly seasonality has historically been negligible in February.


Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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Asian FX Action Levels

USD pullback in Asia is expected to be limited but does show near term risk of a shakeout of crowded positioning (JPY and SGD bets). CAD is a...

Thomas Schroeder

Is the Environment Supportive of EM FX Relative-Value Trades?

The rise in the volatility of EM currencies should in theory be supportive of relative-value trades, but of late, the dispersion between them is...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Market Snapshot, Theatre of War

Amidst carnage in financial markets, some assets - inc US Treasury yields, some Asian and high-yielding EM currencies, AUD & NZD and even S&P 500 -...

Olivier Desbarres

USDJPY at Risk

The latest developments in US fixed income markets are also pointing to a lower USDJPY which has failed twice already at 116.35. Lower levels in...

Shyam Devani

Japanese Yen – Myths and Realities

Yen is viewed as safe-haven, EM funding currency. Only first half has held true in past 18 months. Trade deficit weighing on Yen but risk-aversion...

Olivier Desbarres

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