Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported a decent Q2FY24 led by a strong NIM (3.04%). Growth has been somewhat subdued due to technical issues, however, these have been resolved and October is tracking well.</li>
<li>LICHF reiterated its full-year FY24 NIM guidance at 2.6-2.8%. Credit cost, except for one-off item of INR 104cr in Q2FY24, continues to be below 50bp annualized.</li>
<li>Despite a subdued H1FY24, LICHF has maintained its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 10%+. This implies that LICHF can grow AUM at 5%+ QoQ over the next two quarters.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported a decent Q2FY24 led by a strong NIM (3.04%). Growth has been somewhat subdued due to technical issues, however, these have been resolved and October is tracking well.
LICHF reiterated its full-year FY24 NIM guidance at 2.6-2.8%. Credit cost, except for one-off item of INR 104cr in Q2FY24, continues to be below 50bp annualized.
Despite a subdued H1FY24, LICHF has maintained its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 10%+. This implies that LICHF can grow AUM at 5%+ QoQ over the next two quarters.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  </li>
<li>With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF's asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  </li>
<li>At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. </li>
</ul>



LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  
With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF's asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  
At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. 


<ul>
<li>LICHF reported a strong Q4FY23 with a PAT of INR 1180cr. This takes the FY23 PAT to INR 2891cr, well above our estimate of INR 2700cr.</li>
<li>Asset quality worsened as Stage 2 assets increased to 5.25% vs 3.92%. However, this is temporary due to one-off interest rate hike related technical issues in EMI payments.</li>
<li>LICHF has guided for a strong FY24, led by margin expansion and AUM growth. As credit costs remain benign, profitability should jump significantly.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported a strong Q4FY23 with a PAT of INR 1180cr. This takes the FY23 PAT to INR 2891cr, well above our estimate of INR 2700cr.
Asset quality worsened as Stage 2 assets increased to 5.25% vs 3.92%. However, this is temporary due to one-off interest rate hike related technical issues in EMI payments.
LICHF has guided for a strong FY24, led by margin expansion and AUM growth. As credit costs remain benign, profitability should jump significantly.


LICHF: Q4FY23 Earnings Better than Expected; Asset Quality Worsened Optically But Nothing Worrisome

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

PNB Housing Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pnb-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23613:1" rel="noopener">PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN)</a> (PHBHF) aims to raise up to US$300m via a rights issue in order to boost its capital base.</li>
<li>PNBHF is the housing finance arm of Punjab National Bank and is partly owned by Carlyle, with investments from General Atlantic as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the rights issue and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN) (PHBHF) aims to raise up to US$300m via a rights issue in order to boost its capital base.
PNBHF is the housing finance arm of Punjab National Bank and is partly owned by Carlyle, with investments from General Atlantic as well.
In this note, we will talk about the rights issue and other deal dynamics.


PNB Housing Finance Rights Issue - Finally Closing in on the Capital Raising

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported Q3FY23 earnings that was lower than expected due to the increase in provisioning. LICHF reported annualized credit cost of 1.2% vs expected run-rate of &lt;0.5%.</li>
<li>The higher provisioning was done purely from a management overlay perspective for extra caution. It led the PCR to rise to 51% vs 43%+ earlier. </li>
<li>The higher provisioning was not due to asset quality deterioration. In fact, asset quality improved slightly with GNPA at 4.75% vs 4.90% QoQ.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported Q3FY23 earnings that was lower than expected due to the increase in provisioning. LICHF reported annualized credit cost of 1.2% vs expected run-rate of &lt;0.5%.
The higher provisioning was done purely from a management overlay perspective for extra caution. It led the PCR to rise to 51% vs 43%+ earlier. 
The higher provisioning was not due to asset quality deterioration. In fact, asset quality improved slightly with GNPA at 4.75% vs 4.90% QoQ.


LICHF: One-Off Discretionary Provisioning Impacted Q3FY23, But Q4FY23 Is On Track to Be Strong

India

LIC Housing Finance is a major Indian housing finance company that provides long-term financing for the purchase, construction, repair, and renovation of residential properties for individuals and corporate entities. The company offers a diverse product portfolio including home loans, plot loans, home improvement loans, and loans against property. It was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

LICHF: H2FY24 Guided to Be Strong

LICHF is available at a cheap valuation of <8x P/E based on our FY24 estimated PAT. At the current valuation, an investment in LICHF has potential...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: On Track for a Record FY24 PAT

LICHF is on track to post a record PAT of INR 4100cr+ in FY24. At the current market cap, it is available at a P/E of around 6x, suggesting that it...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: Q4FY23 Earnings Better than Expected; Asset Quality Worsened Optically But Nothing Worrisome

An investment in LICHF has potential to triple over the next couple of years. FY24E PAT is likely to be INR 4100cr+, suggesting that at the current...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

PNB Housing Finance Rights Issue - Finally Closing in on the Capital Raising

PNB Housing Finance Ltd (PNBHOUSI IN) (PHBHF) aims to raise up to US$300m via a rights issue in order to boost its capital base.

Sumeet Singh

LICHF: One-Off Discretionary Provisioning Impacted Q3FY23, But Q4FY23 Is On Track to Be Strong

LICHF reported lower than expected Q3FY23 earnings due to one-off excess provisioning. Despite this, it provides an attractive valuation of <8x P/E...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

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