Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported strong Q3FY22 earnings on the back of improving asset quality leading to limited provisioning and limited interest reversal impact from OTR.</li>
<li>Disbursement in Q3FY22 was 135% of pre-COVID level i.e. vs Q3FY20. This growth momentum has continued from Q2FY22 when also it was 132% that in Q2FY20.</li>
<li>Given our FY23 earnings (PAT) projection of INR 3,600cr+, LICHF with current market cap of around INR 20,000cr is available at an attractive valuation of &lt;6x P/E  on FY23E PAT.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported strong Q3FY22 earnings on the back of improving asset quality leading to limited provisioning and limited interest reversal impact from OTR.
Disbursement in Q3FY22 was 135% of pre-COVID level i.e. vs Q3FY20. This growth momentum has continued from Q2FY22 when also it was 132% that in Q2FY20.
Given our FY23 earnings (PAT) projection of INR 3,600cr+, LICHF with current market cap of around INR 20,000cr is available at an attractive valuation of &lt;6x P/E  on FY23E PAT.


LICHF: Strong Earnings In Line With Our Thesis

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance Corporation of India / Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance Corporation of India (LICI IN)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (1248Z IN)</a> is the largest life insurer in India. LIC is looking to raise about $8 billion. It opens for anchor investors on 11 March. </li>
<li>LIC has leveraged its dominance to deliver healthy premium growth and high persistency ratio. However, the VNB margin and operational efficiency metrics are mid-tier compared to peers. </li>
<li>On balance, the fundamentals look sound. The IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the volatile IPO market conditions. </li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (1248Z IN) is the largest life insurer in India. LIC is looking to raise about $8 billion. It opens for anchor investors on 11 March. 
LIC has leveraged its dominance to deliver healthy premium growth and high persistency ratio. However, the VNB margin and operational efficiency metrics are mid-tier compared to peers. 
On balance, the fundamentals look sound. The IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the volatile IPO market conditions. 


Life Insurance Corp of India IPO: Premium Market

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Housing Development Finance Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC IN)

<ul>
<li>HDFC Ltd (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 3Q22 results of INR 30.5 bn, decreasing INR 6.2 bn (16.9%) linked quarter basis reflecting a lack of dividends received; </li>
<li>Given the INR 4.2 bn in NCO during FY 3Q22, net new NPLs increased INR 11.7 bn or 23.3% on an annualized basis; and </li>
<li>We also find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 185 bn or over a year of PBT.   </li>
</ul>


HDFC Ltd (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 3Q22 results of INR 30.5 bn, decreasing INR 6.2 bn (16.9%) linked quarter basis reflecting a lack of dividends received; 
Given the INR 4.2 bn in NCO during FY 3Q22, net new NPLs increased INR 11.7 bn or 23.3% on an annualized basis; and 
We also find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 185 bn or over a year of PBT.   


<ul>
<li>IndusInd reported FY 3Q22 bottom-line results improved 4.8% linked quarter, driven by stronger core revenues and a lower provision; </li>
<li>NCOs remain elevated and show no sign of abating, and net new NPLs increased 31.6% annualized; and </li>
<li>IndusInd’s reserve needs to increase closer to 75% with a shortfall of INR 30 bn – representing two quarters of pre-tax results. </li>
</ul>


IndusInd reported FY 3Q22 bottom-line results improved 4.8% linked quarter, driven by stronger core revenues and a lower provision; 
NCOs remain elevated and show no sign of abating, and net new NPLs increased 31.6% annualized; and 
IndusInd’s reserve needs to increase closer to 75% with a shortfall of INR 30 bn – representing two quarters of pre-tax results. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> saw very strong demand for its mega US$10bn+ IPO.</li>
<li>While other IPO markets were in torpor, a number of placements continued to flow in.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) saw very strong demand for its mega US$10bn+ IPO.
While other IPO markets were in torpor, a number of placements continued to flow in.


ECM Weekly (16th Jan 2022) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Nippon Paint, Sunac, JL Mag, JREITs

India

LIC Housing Finance is a major Indian housing finance company that provides long-term financing for the purchase, construction, repair, and renovation of residential properties for individuals and corporate entities. The company offers a diverse product portfolio including home loans, plot loans, home improvement loans, and loans against property. It was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

LICHF: Strong Earnings In Line With Our Thesis

LICHF with market cap of around INR 20,000cr is available at <6 P/E on FY23E PAT of INR 3,600cr+. It has potential to more than triple over the...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Life Insurance Corp of India IPO: Premium Market

The Indian government is seeking to sell a 5% stake in LIC to potentially raise nearly $8 billion. The IPO is worth a look for investors willing to...

Arun George

HDFC Ltd. – Lack of Conservatism

HDFC: HDFC reported FY 3Q22 results decline of 16.9% QOQ. Net new NPLs increased 23.3% on an annualized basis, and HDFC’s reserve still needs...

Thomas J. Monaco

IndusInd Bank – Stabilizing Somewhat

INDUSIND BANK: IndusInd reported FY 3Q22 bottom-line results improvement of 4.8% linked quarter, driven by stronger core revenues. NCOs remain...

Thomas J. Monaco

ECM Weekly (16th Jan 2022) - LG Energy, Hyundai Engineering, Nippon Paint, Sunac, JL Mag, JREITs

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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