Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
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Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> posted substantial decline in NIM to 1.80% vs 2.54% QoQ, this was largely due to one-off impact from a couple of items.</li>
<li>LICHF has maintained its prior guidance of beating FY22 NIM of 2.29%, which means that for full-year FY23, LICHF is still on track for a NIM of 2.3% or above.</li>
<li>There was a one-off provisioning relating to INR 180cr of write-offs, which was fully provided for, but due to Ind-AS accounting had to be booked again resulting in excess provisioning.</li>
</ul>


While LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) posted substantial decline in NIM to 1.80% vs 2.54% QoQ, this was largely due to one-off impact from a couple of items.
LICHF has maintained its prior guidance of beating FY22 NIM of 2.29%, which means that for full-year FY23, LICHF is still on track for a NIM of 2.3% or above.
There was a one-off provisioning relating to INR 180cr of write-offs, which was fully provided for, but due to Ind-AS accounting had to be booked again resulting in excess provisioning.


LICHF: FY23 NIM Guidance Intact Despite One-Off Impact in Q2FY23

<ul>
<li>With Q1FY23 PAT at INR 925cr+, LICHF is on track to beat our prior estimate of INR 3600cr+ for FY23 PAT.</li>
<li>We now project that LICHF can do INR 3850cr+ PAT in FY23, implying that at the current market cap of INR 21,000cr, LICHF is trading cheap at &lt;5.5x FY23 P/E.</li>
<li>Credit cost for the quarter was slightly higher at annualized 0.5% of AUM, however, excluding slippages from the OTR book, it was in line with long-term average of around 0.2-0.3%.</li>
</ul>


With Q1FY23 PAT at INR 925cr+, LICHF is on track to beat our prior estimate of INR 3600cr+ for FY23 PAT.
We now project that LICHF can do INR 3850cr+ PAT in FY23, implying that at the current market cap of INR 21,000cr, LICHF is trading cheap at &lt;5.5x FY23 P/E.
Credit cost for the quarter was slightly higher at annualized 0.5% of AUM, however, excluding slippages from the OTR book, it was in line with long-term average of around 0.2-0.3%.


LICHF: Earnings On Track To Beat Our Prior Projections

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> reported stellar results, in line with the expectation from our last note. NIM expanded while provisions declined leading to Q4FY22 PAT of INR 1100cr+.</li>
<li>Asset quality improved with Stage 3 assets at 4.64% vs 5.04% QoQ and Stage 2 assets at 3.08% vs 3.75% QoQ. LICHF also recovered 350cr of NPAs during Q4FY22.</li>
<li>Adjusted for one-off tax benefits and assuming FY23 NIM at 2.4%, LICHF's normalized PAT potential is INR 3600cr+ suggesting that LICHF is trading at &lt;6x P/E on FY23E PAT.</li>
</ul>



LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) reported stellar results, in line with the expectation from our last note. NIM expanded while provisions declined leading to Q4FY22 PAT of INR 1100cr+.
Asset quality improved with Stage 3 assets at 4.64% vs 5.04% QoQ and Stage 2 assets at 3.08% vs 3.75% QoQ. LICHF also recovered 350cr of NPAs during Q4FY22.
Adjusted for one-off tax benefits and assuming FY23 NIM at 2.4%, LICHF's normalized PAT potential is INR 3600cr+ suggesting that LICHF is trading at &lt;6x P/E on FY23E PAT.


Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. </li>
<li>There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.</li>
</ul>


After market close on Friday 20th May 2022, the constituency changes for S&amp;P BSE 100, SENSEX 50, and SENSEX Next 50 Indices were announced. 
There will be no changes for S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and S&amp;P BSE BANKEX Indices in the June 2022 Rebalance. 
These changes will become effective at the open of Monday 20th June 2022. Below is a closer look at each of the names involved in the June 2022 Rebalance.


S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.</li>
<li>On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.
On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.


ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

India

LIC Housing Finance is a major Indian housing finance company that provides long-term financing for the purchase, construction, repair, and renovation of residential properties for individuals and corporate entities. The company offers a diverse product portfolio including home loans, plot loans, home improvement loans, and loans against property. It was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

LICHF: FY23 NIM Guidance Intact Despite One-Off Impact in Q2FY23

Despite a poor show in Q2FY23, we project that LICHF is on track to post INR 3200cr+ of PAT in FY23, which implies that LICHF is available at an...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: Earnings On Track To Beat Our Prior Projections

Q1FY23 PAT of INR 925cr+ suggests that LICHF is on track to beat our prior estimate of INR 3600cr+ FY23 PAT. We now estimate it to do 3850cr+ PAT,...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: Stellar Q4FY22 Results

LICHF reported stellar Q4FY22 earnings in line with our expectation. FY23 PAT is likely to be INR 3600cr+, suggesting that LICHF is available at an...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

S&P BSE Indices: No Changes for SENSEX; 7 ADDs/DELs for BSE 100 in June 2022

S&P BSE Index changes for June 2022 were announced last week. No changes for SENSEX. 7 Adds/Deletes for BSE 100 including some negative and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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