Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.</li>
<li>There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.</li>
<li>We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.</li>
</ul>


AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.
There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.
We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.


Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We have also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass, and we continue to expect support at the 50-day MA on ACWI-US</li>
<li>We take a closer look at SK Hynix and Micron</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We have also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our April 23, 2026 Int’l Compass, and we continue to expect support at the 50-day MA on ACWI-US
We take a closer look at SK Hynix and Micron


US Dollar Breakout; Watching SK Hynix (000660-KR) And Micron (MU-US); Should You Be Concerned? No.

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.</li>
<li>The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.</li>
<li>A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.
The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.
A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.


U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US market is showing signs of buyer exhaustion.  High valuations, declining breadth, single-stock option skew, extreme momentum crowding, and lofty analyst earnings projections present risks to the bull market.</li>
<li>Wall Street earnings upgrades in April were almost entirely in the tech sector and were heavily dependent on a historically high estimate of S&amp;P operating margins.</li>
<li>Rushed mega-IPOs and equity placements by hyperscalers pose another risk to the market as liquidity requirements for the tech sector grow rapidly.</li>
</ul>


The US market is showing signs of buyer exhaustion.  High valuations, declining breadth, single-stock option skew, extreme momentum crowding, and lofty analyst earnings projections present risks to the bull market.
Wall Street earnings upgrades in April were almost entirely in the tech sector and were heavily dependent on a historically high estimate of S&amp;P operating margins.
Rushed mega-IPOs and equity placements by hyperscalers pose another risk to the market as liquidity requirements for the tech sector grow rapidly.


<ul>
<li>
YES on Commodity Memory: Structurally Ceded to China State capital and policy mandate make Chinese gains in commodity DRAM and NAND inevitable; treat market share erosion for incumbents as permanent.</li>
<li>
HBM Remains a Korean-American Franchise Through 2030. China cannot shortcut 3–4 years of TSV process learning. SK Hynix and Micron hold the industry's highest-value; the gap is widening, not closing.</li>
<li>
Investment Call: Own Incumbents, Treat China Listings as Options SK Hynix and Micron are preferred for HBM exposure. CXMT and YMTC (both H2 2026 IPOs) are high-risk, high-optionality options only.</li>
</ul>



YES on Commodity Memory: Structurally Ceded to China State capital and policy mandate make Chinese gains in commodity DRAM and NAND inevitable; treat market share erosion for incumbents as permanent.

HBM Remains a Korean-American Franchise Through 2030. China cannot shortcut 3–4 years of TSV process learning. SK Hynix and Micron hold the industry's highest-value; the gap is widening, not closing.

Investment Call: Own Incumbents, Treat China Listings as Options SK Hynix and Micron are preferred for HBM exposure. CXMT and YMTC (both H2 2026 IPOs) are high-risk, high-optionality options only.


THE COMING OF CHINESE MEMORY:       Will China Conquer the Last Semiconductor Oligopoly?

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

US Dollar Breakout; Watching SK Hynix (000660-KR) And Micron (MU-US); Should You Be Concerned? No.

U.S. Dollar Breakout; Watching SK Hynix (000660-KR) and Micron (MU-US); Should You Be Concerned About Technology? No.; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors $SOXX and Micron $MU; Focus Turning Away from Technology/A.I.

Vermilion Research

US MARKET EXHAUSTION (June 26)

The US market is showing signs of buyer exhaustion. High valuations, narrow breadth, single-stock option skew, momentum crowding, & lofty analyst...

David Mudd

THE COMING OF CHINESE MEMORY: Will China Conquer the Last Semiconductor Oligopoly?

China will win the commodity DRAM/NAND (3–4 years out). HBM — the AI engine — stays Korean/American. China just can't buy its way into tacit TSV...

Mo Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

​AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

US Dollar Breakout; Watching SK Hynix (000660-KR) And Micron (MU-US); Should You Be Concerned? No.

U.S. Dollar Breakout; Watching SK Hynix (000660-KR) and Micron (MU-US); Should You Be Concerned About Technology? No.; Bullish Outlook Intact. Buys...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors $SOXX and Micron $MU; Focus Turning Away from Technology/A.I.

Vermilion Research

US MARKET EXHAUSTION (June 26)

The US market is showing signs of buyer exhaustion. High valuations, narrow breadth, single-stock option skew, momentum crowding, & lofty analyst...

David Mudd

THE COMING OF CHINESE MEMORY: Will China Conquer the Last Semiconductor Oligopoly?

China will win the commodity DRAM/NAND (3–4 years out). HBM — the AI engine — stays Korean/American. China just can't buy its way into tacit TSV...

Mo Aziz

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...