Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>China takes an important step in economic and social reform</li>
<li>Japan continues to tiptoe around monetary policy and JGB issuance</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
China takes an important step in economic and social reform
Japan continues to tiptoe around monetary policy and JGB issuance


Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI investment has shifted to infrastructure buildout, where growth is driven by rising content per server rather than unit volumes, supporting more stable system-level demand.</li>
<li>Value is concentrated at the server board level, with interconnect offering standardised, architecture-linked exposure, while PCB provides direct but execution-dependent leverage to system complexity.</li>
<li>Earnings visibility depends on alignment between hyperscaler capex and order momentum; divergence signals a shift from expansion to a more volatile digestion phase.</li>
</ul>


AI investment has shifted to infrastructure buildout, where growth is driven by rising content per server rather than unit volumes, supporting more stable system-level demand.
Value is concentrated at the server board level, with interconnect offering standardised, architecture-linked exposure, while PCB provides direct but execution-dependent leverage to system complexity.
Earnings visibility depends on alignment between hyperscaler capex and order momentum; divergence signals a shift from expansion to a more volatile digestion phase.


AI Infrastructure: Value Shifts to the Server Board Level

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>On 19 May 2026, China’s Hubei securities regulator accepted CITIC Securities’ tutoring filing for Yangtze Memory Technologies Holding Co., Ltd. (YMTC), the country’s only end-to-end 3D NAND manufacturer.</li>
<li>Reports suggest YMTC Q1 2026 revenue of  ¥20 billion, doubling YoY, driven by AI data center NAND demand.</li>
<li>Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would <em><strong>double</strong></em> total YMTC capacity at full production. Yikes! </li>
</ul>


On 19 May 2026, China’s Hubei securities regulator accepted CITIC Securities’ tutoring filing for Yangtze Memory Technologies Holding Co., Ltd. (YMTC), the country’s only end-to-end 3D NAND manufacturer.
Reports suggest YMTC Q1 2026 revenue of  ¥20 billion, doubling YoY, driven by AI data center NAND demand.
Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would double total YMTC capacity at full production. Yikes! 


YMTC’s Submits "Tutoring" Filing In Preparation For Another STAR IPO

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK hynix (000660 KS)</a> gained 6.1% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 9.6%, yet combined long-ETF AUM declined 2.7%.</li>
<li>All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded reductions in units outstanding, while September net outflows reached KRW 514bn and daily flow activity remained subdued.</li>
<li>In contrast, the inverse ETF’s units outstanding more than doubled and its market capitalisation increased 68%, despite the product losing 17.0% during September.</li>
</ul>



SK hynix (000660 KS) gained 6.1% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 9.6%, yet combined long-ETF AUM declined 2.7%.
All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded reductions in units outstanding, while September net outflows reached KRW 514bn and daily flow activity remained subdued.
In contrast, the inverse ETF’s units outstanding more than doubled and its market capitalisation increased 68%, despite the product losing 17.0% during September.


SK Hynix (000660 KS): Inverse 2x ETF Units Double as Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Overview #62 - Standing Room Only

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at China's recent structural reform and some parallels with...

Rikki Malik

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

AI Infrastructure: Value Shifts to the Server Board Level

Re-sharing as recent AI infrastructure spending and deployment trends continue to reinforce the discussion around where value capture is becoming...

Duncan Chan

YMTC’s Submits "Tutoring" Filing In Preparation For Another STAR IPO

Once Phase III ramps, Guosheng estimates YMTC’s global NAND share exceeds 15%. After that, two more fabs are reportedly planned that would double...

William Keating

SK Hynix (000660 KS): Inverse 2x ETF Units Double as Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist

September gains failed to reverse outflows from SK hynix (000660 KS) long 2x leveraged ETFs, while investors added inverse exposure despite the...

Gaudenz Schneider

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