Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control</li>
<li>We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)</li>
<li>We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control
We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)
We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS


Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.</li>
<li>RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight</li>
<li>We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.
RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight
We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.


Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chinese suppliers are gaining share as shortages force OEMs to qualify alternative vendors, creating structural leakage that is hard to reverse even after supply normalises.</li>
<li>Demand elasticity is emerging in lower-end devices, where elevated memory prices are starting to compress volumes and trigger renegotiation pressure in commodity segments.</li>
<li>Hyperscaler spending is becoming more staggered, with phased deployments and higher utilisation of existing capacity making memory demand lumpier rather than structurally weaker.</li>
</ul>


Chinese suppliers are gaining share as shortages force OEMs to qualify alternative vendors, creating structural leakage that is hard to reverse even after supply normalises.
Demand elasticity is emerging in lower-end devices, where elevated memory prices are starting to compress volumes and trigger renegotiation pressure in commodity segments.
Hyperscaler spending is becoming more staggered, with phased deployments and higher utilisation of existing capacity making memory demand lumpier rather than structurally weaker.


TurboQuant Was an Excuse; The Memory Cycle Was Already Splitting.

<ul>
<li>TurboQuant triggered the sell-off, but the market appears to have priced a uniform demand shock across memory, despite the impact being limited to inference efficiency.</li>
<li>Supply remains tight; HBM capacity largely locked into 2026; TrendForce revised DRAM and NAND pricing sharply higher after the TurboQuant announcement. </li>
<li>Relevant risks sit elsewhere: early signs of pricing resistance in commodity memory, emerging share gains from Chinese suppliers, and a shift toward more staggered hyperscaler spending</li>
</ul>


TurboQuant triggered the sell-off, but the market appears to have priced a uniform demand shock across memory, despite the impact being limited to inference efficiency.
Supply remains tight; HBM capacity largely locked into 2026; TrendForce revised DRAM and NAND pricing sharply higher after the TurboQuant announcement. 
Relevant risks sit elsewhere: early signs of pricing resistance in commodity memory, emerging share gains from Chinese suppliers, and a shift toward more staggered hyperscaler spending


Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>As of 28-Feb-26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a> has inaugurated <strong>India's first large-scale commercial semiconductor</strong> ATMP facility in Sanand, Gujarat. </li>
<li>The India's Semi-conductor Mission has now 10 approved projects with aggregate investments of Rs 1.60 lakh crore ($18.6 billion) across six states.</li>
<li>Kaynes Semicon shipping India's first commercially paid chip prototype, CG Semi weeks away from volume production, Tata's Dholera fab in equipment installation, India's semiconductor value chain is no longer aspirational.</li>
</ul>


As of 28-Feb-26, Micron Technology (MU US) has inaugurated India's first large-scale commercial semiconductor ATMP facility in Sanand, Gujarat. 
The India's Semi-conductor Mission has now 10 approved projects with aggregate investments of Rs 1.60 lakh crore ($18.6 billion) across six states.
Kaynes Semicon shipping India's first commercially paid chip prototype, CG Semi weeks away from volume production, Tata's Dholera fab in equipment installation, India's semiconductor value chain is no longer aspirational.


INDIA SEMICONDUCTOR- Who Is Doing What and How Far Along Are They?

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

TurboQuant Was an Excuse; The Memory Cycle Was Already Splitting.

Shortages are leading OEMs to qualify new vendors; Memory price hikes are affecting lower-end devices, while hyperscalers' spending patterns are...

Mint Finance

Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Mint Finance

INDIA SEMICONDUCTOR- Who Is Doing What and How Far Along Are They?

Micron Technology opens India's first large-scale semiconductor facility in Gujarat, part of India's Semiconductor Mission with 10 approved...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

TurboQuant Was an Excuse; The Memory Cycle Was Already Splitting.

​Shortages are leading OEMs to qualify new vendors; Memory price hikes are affecting lower-end devices, while hyperscalers' spending patterns are...

Mint Finance

Memory's TurboQuant Panic Misses Where Demand Actually Sits

​TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Mint Finance

INDIA SEMICONDUCTOR- Who Is Doing What and How Far Along Are They?

​Micron Technology opens India's first large-scale semiconductor facility in Gujarat, part of India's Semiconductor Mission with 10 approved...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Shortages are leading OEMs to qualify new vendors; Memory price hikes are affecting lower-end devices, while hyperscalers' spending patterns are...

TurboQuant sell-off triggers panic on inference efficiency. However, supply is tight, and pricing is revised higher. Risks seen in Chinese...

Micron Technology opens India's first large-scale semiconductor facility in Gujarat, part of India's Semiconductor Mission with 10 approved...