Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.</li>
<li>
This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.</li>
</ul>



Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.

This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. 

Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>Dongfeng has now released the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof for VOYAH</a>, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.</li>
<li>The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.</li>
</ul>


On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.


Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

<ul>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)</a>'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.</li>
<li>Those who want to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial (8729 JP)</a> may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)</a> is fully valued as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK) </a> trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. </li>
</ul>


The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. MINISO (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.
Those who want to buy Sony Financial (8729 JP) may wait until earnings. If shares stayed flat for a month until earnings came out, don't short the eve of earnings.

Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) is fully valued as Zijin Gold (2259 HK)  trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a>, JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. </li>
<li>HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.</li>
<li>The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is up ~10% this week and ~30% YTD. 53.3%-held Hongkong Land (HKL SP), JMH's largest holding, is up 41% YTD and 85% over the year. 
HKL has been on a tear since CEO Michael Smith started on the 1st April 2024, as HKL focused on capital allocation and portfolio management - read deleveraging.
The recent appointment of PAG's Lincoln Pan at the helm of JMH, has the street upbeat he will bring about similar positive developments. That's not unreasonable.


Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/6isxm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In</a>, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appeared limited.</li>
<li>A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY's finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO's recent segment accounts. </li>
<li>The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. </li>
</ul>


In MINISO (9896 HK)'s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO's upside appeared limited.
A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY's finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO's recent segment accounts. 
The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance. 


Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

China

MINISO is a global retailer and variety store chain specializing in design-led lifestyle and pop toy products. The company offers a wide range of household and consumer goods, including cosmetics, stationery, toys, kitchenware, home decor, and electronics, often featuring intellectual property (IP) collaborations. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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MINISO (9896 HK)

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

There's been a lot of enthusiasm washing over HK spin-offs lately: Zijin Mining (2899 HK), MINISO (9896 HK), and now Dongfeng. I think Dongfeng is...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

MAND has confirmed it's in discussions to sell some office space in One Causeway Bay (previously the Excelsior Hotel). Alibaba is rumoured to be...

David Blennerhassett

Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

TOP TOY's spin-off is now firmed. I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

​Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

There's been a lot of enthusiasm washing over HK spin-offs lately: Zijin Mining (2899 HK), MINISO (9896 HK), and now Dongfeng. I think Dongfeng is...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: MINISO, Sony Financial, Zijin Mining/Gold, Jardines/Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson (JM SP) On A Roll As The Street Turns (More) Positive

MAND has confirmed it's in discussions to sell some office space in One Causeway Bay (previously the Excelsior Hotel). Alibaba is rumoured to be...

David Blennerhassett

Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

TOP TOY's spin-off is now firmed. I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992...

David Blennerhassett

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.