Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The process in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> transaction is egregiously bad and lacking in  transparency. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even if bumped.</li>
<li>There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (2899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO (9896 HK)</a>). I'm not convinced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> deserves similar accolades.  </li>
<li>If you've the ability to borrow <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>, this promises to be fun/interesting. If you're a long-only investor, it's more nuanced. And it depends on where you are post-tender.</li>
</ul>


The process in the Toyota Industries (6201 JP) transaction is egregiously bad and lacking in  transparency. This deal, as structured, is block-able, even if bumped.
There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late (Zijin Mining (2899 HK) and MINISO (9896 HK)). I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) deserves similar accolades.  
If you've the ability to borrow Aeon (8267 JP), this promises to be fun/interesting. If you're a long-only investor, it's more nuanced. And it depends on where you are post-tender.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds, Dongfeng Motors, Aeon/TSURUHA, Jinke Smart, Genting Malaysia

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

TOP TOY International Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.</li>
<li>Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.</li>
<li>If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Relying on MINISO’s mature retail system, TOP TOY has achieved scale accumulation rapidly.Real challenge lies in whether it can continuously create "blockbuster proprietary IPs" and reduce reliance on licensing model.
Due to smaller revenue proportion of proprietary IPs/overseas revenue and lower profit margin, valuation of TOP TOY should be lower than Pop Mart, but would be higher than MINISO.
If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB9.3-11.2 billion. So, post-money valuation of US$1.3 billion after Series A financing is not cheap. Valuation premium space after IPO may be lower-than-expected.


Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-toy-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45838:1" rel="noopener">TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK)</a>  is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JPM, UBS and CITIC.</li>
<li>TOP TOY International Group is China's largest and fastest-growing pop toy collection brand.</li>
<li>The company achieved a GMV of RMB2.4 billion in mainland China in 2024, securing its rank as the largest pop toy collection brand in the country by this metric.</li>
</ul>



TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK)  is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by JPM, UBS and CITIC.
TOP TOY International Group is China's largest and fastest-growing pop toy collection brand.
The company achieved a GMV of RMB2.4 billion in mainland China in 2024, securing its rank as the largest pop toy collection brand in the country by this metric.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-toy-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45838:1" rel="noopener">TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK)</a> is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong. In the latest Series A financing, it is valued at US$1.3bn post-money.</li>
<li>It has solid market growth potential, IP and product development strengths, an extensive distribution network, and good leverage on its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>We initially assess a fair FY26F PER of 20-22x, equating to a slight premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> but a discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



TOP TOY International Group (TOYTOY HK) is seeking an IPO in Hong Kong. In the latest Series A financing, it is valued at US$1.3bn post-money.
It has solid market growth potential, IP and product development strengths, an extensive distribution network, and good leverage on its parent MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK). 
We initially assess a fair FY26F PER of 20-22x, equating to a slight premium to Bloks Group (325 HK) but a discount to Pop Mart (9992 HK). 


TOP TOY Intl: Pre-IPO - More than Just Emotional Value

China

MINISO is a global retailer and variety store chain specializing in design-led lifestyle and pop toy products. The company offers a wide range of household and consumer goods, including cosmetics, stationery, toys, kitchenware, home decor, and electronics, often featuring intellectual property (IP) collaborations. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

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MINISO (9896 HK)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds, Dongfeng Motors, Aeon/TSURUHA, Jinke Smart, Genting Malaysia

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Top Toy International Pre-IPO Tearsheet

China's top toy brand, TOP TOY International Group, plans to raise over US$300m in Hong Kong IPO with JPM, UBS, and CITIC leading the deal.

Nicholas Tan

TOP TOY Intl: Pre-IPO - More than Just Emotional Value

TOP TOY is set for an IPO in Hong Kong, boasting market growth potential, IP strength, a strong distribution network and MINISO's support. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week In Event SPACE: Toyota Inds, Dongfeng Motors, Aeon/TSURUHA, Jinke Smart, Genting Malaysia

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Pre-IPO TOP TOY International Group - The Industry, the Business and the Valuation Outlook

​TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Top Toy International Pre-IPO Tearsheet

​China's top toy brand, TOP TOY International Group, plans to raise over US$300m in Hong Kong IPO with JPM, UBS, and CITIC leading the deal.

Nicholas Tan

TOP TOY Intl: Pre-IPO - More than Just Emotional Value

​TOP TOY is set for an IPO in Hong Kong, boasting market growth potential, IP strength, a strong distribution network and MINISO's support. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TOP TOY's success hinges on creating blockbuster proprietary IPs to reduce reliance on licensing model. Due to low profit margin, valuation will...

China's top toy brand, TOP TOY International Group, plans to raise over US$300m in Hong Kong IPO with JPM, UBS, and CITIC leading the deal.

TOP TOY is set for an IPO in Hong Kong, boasting market growth potential, IP strength, a strong distribution network and MINISO's support. We...