Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.</li>
<li>Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.</li>
<li>Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.</li>
</ul>


Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.
Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.
Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.


Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250515/pdf/06jrrv7bzv8wkn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15th May</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peak-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19238:1" rel="noopener">Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU)</a> entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenghe-resources-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17058:1" rel="noopener">Shenghe Resources (600392 CH)</a> @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. </li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. </li>
</ul>


On the 15th May, Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU) entered into a non-binding Offer, by way of a Scheme, with Shenghe Resources (600392 CH) @A$0.389/share, a punchy 199% to undisturbed.
Shenghe holds 19.86% in Peak, and has offtake rights to 100% of the rare earth production from the 84%-held Ngualla project in Tanzania. 
The Scheme Booklet was registered with ASIC on the 11th August with a 16th September Scheme Meeting. Shenghe has now bumped terms to A$0.443. Declared final. Scheme Meeting remains unchanged. 


Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

<ul>
<li>Last week, rare-earth play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. </li>
<li>Gina Rinehart, Lynas' second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. </li>
<li>Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.</li>
</ul>


Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close. 
Gina Rinehart, Lynas' second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment. 
Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.


Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025.</li><li>The company has embarked on strategic partnerships with the Department of Defense (DoD) and Apple, marking a new chapter in its operational history.</li><li>These partnerships serve as significant validations of MP Materials' strategic mission and reflect substantial steps towards enhancing its supply chain capabilities and vertical integration.</li></ul>

MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025.The company has embarked on strategic partnerships with the Department of Defense (DoD) and Apple, marking a new chapter in its operational history.These partnerships serve as significant validations of MP Materials' strategic mission and reflect substantial steps towards enhancing its supply chain capabilities and vertical integration.

MP Materials: Initiation of Coverage- Partnership With Apple & the DoD—Are These Deals a Guaranteed Growth Engine?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.</li>
<li>China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.</li>
<li>While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia and AMD are set to resume scaled-down AI chip exports to China, marking a partial reversal of earlier U.S. export bans.
China retains a near-monopoly on REE refining, controlling roughly 90% of global capacity, and its March 2025 export halt highlighted the leverage it holds over high-tech and defence supply chains.
While markets rallied on the chip announcements, IV data suggests diverging risk expectations across Nvidia, AMD, and MP Materials, reflecting broader uncertainty around the durability and scope of this reopening.


Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

United States

MP Materials Corp. produces and markets rare earth specialty materials. The Company is building a fully-integrated supply chain for high strength permanent magnets for the electrification and sustainability industries.

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MP Materials Corp (MP US)

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

Clean deal. Tanzania's FCC will give the acquisition a hard look; but should give the green light, given Shenghe's offtake agreement. If small...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Lynas is up massively over the past year, and especially recently. Yet as the no 1 rare-earth play outside China - and now very cashed up - it's a...

David Blennerhassett

MP Materials: Initiation of Coverage- Partnership With Apple & the DoD—Are These Deals a Guaranteed Growth Engine?

MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025. The company has...

Baptista Research

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

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Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

​Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Peak Rare Earths (PEK AU): Shenghe Bumps And Declares Terms Final

Clean deal. Tanzania's FCC will give the acquisition a hard look; but should give the green light, given Shenghe's offtake agreement. If small...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion

Lynas is up massively over the past year, and especially recently. Yet as the no 1 rare-earth play outside China - and now very cashed up - it's a...

David Blennerhassett

MP Materials: Initiation of Coverage- Partnership With Apple & the DoD—Are These Deals a Guaranteed Growth Engine?

MP Materials reported a significant transformation in its operations and strategic positioning during the second quarter of 2025. The company has...

Baptista Research

Strategic Trade-Offs Define Chipmakers’ Limited China Reopening

​Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.

Mint Finance

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Nvidia and AMD to resume AI chip exports to China, but uncertainty remains over supply chain leverage and market risks.