Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>There are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.</p><p>Some of the places active investors will see this are:</p><ul>
<li>Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 80+% of the outstanding ETF market),</li>
<li>Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week,</li>
<li>The mooted return of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> to the TSE First Section, </li>
<li>The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan,</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's market structure, which appear to be coming sooner than people think,</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's First Section inclusion rules, which will change the nature of TOPIX inclusion trades - a milestone which is approaching VERY quickly.</li>
</ul><p>When I do analysis of index events or shareholder pressure or ownership on a standalone basis, I fairly regularly get skeptical comments and questions <em>"How do you estimate those numbers?? Those numbers look big to me!"</em></p><div><p>As I said in 2018 in the first version of this piece, my reply is that the data is out there if you are diligent enough to look.</p></div><div><p>And when you do, it tells you a fair bit about the nature of what <em>else</em> is out there.</p></div>

There are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.Some of the places active investors will see this are:
Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 80+% of the outstanding ETF market),
Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week,
The mooted return of Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) to the TSE First Section, 
The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan,
The changes to the TSE's market structure, which appear to be coming sooner than people think,
The changes to the TSE's First Section inclusion rules, which will change the nature of TOPIX inclusion trades - a milestone which is approaching VERY quickly.
When I do analysis of index events or shareholder pressure or ownership on a standalone basis, I fairly regularly get skeptical comments and questions "How do you estimate those numbers?? Those numbers look big to me!"As I said in 2018 in the first version of this piece, my reply is that the data is out there if you are diligent enough to look.And when you do, it tells you a fair bit about the nature of what else is out there.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include <strong>Health Care </strong>and <strong>Services</strong>. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include <strong>Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation</strong></p>

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

Quantitative Analysis

<p>In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of dollars, credit spreads exploded, 'risk-free' rate curves steepened dramatically, investment funds blew up, the very structure of money markets was briefly in question. Central banks around the world have acted in coordinated fashion to stem the tide of panic. The US Fed has stepped in with QE Forever, providing trillions of dollars of balance sheet and funding to stabilise systemic risk, and governments have announced trillions of dollars of stimulus packages to try to cushion economies from short-term restrictive social policies meant to stem the slow the spread of COVID-19 and lessen long-term economic damage from loss of life and work.</p><p><em>Amidst this, the Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio has gone through something of a rough patch. </em></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/379/original/Screenshot%202020-03-29%20at%206.18.38%20PM.png?1585477145" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125379"></figure><p></p><p>There is (obviously) a <em>forest-for-the-trees</em> argument to be made here. I'll stipulate that. But investors are expected to do their job come inclement weather, global pestilence, pandemic, or war - that is their job as stewards. Right now, an enormous part of that is second-guessing what <em>other</em> investors will do. </p><p>This insight is a walk through the conditions which enabled and perhaps prompted the wild swings in some of the major constituents in Nikkei 225 and what caused the major swings in Nikkei vs. TOPIX. </p>

In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of dollars, credit spreads exploded, 'risk-free' rate curves steepened dramatically, investment funds blew up, the very structure of money markets was briefly in question. Central banks around the world have acted in coordinated fashion to stem the tide of panic. The US Fed has stepped in with QE Forever, providing trillions of dollars of balance sheet and funding to stabilise systemic risk, and governments have announced trillions of dollars of stimulus packages to try to cushion economies from short-term restrictive social policies meant to stem the slow the spread of COVID-19 and lessen long-term economic damage from loss of life and work.Amidst this, the Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio has gone through something of a rough patch. There is (obviously) a forest-for-the-trees argument to be made here. I'll stipulate that. But investors are expected to do their job come inclement weather, global pestilence, pandemic, or war - that is their job as stewards. Right now, an enormous part of that is second-guessing what other investors will do. This insight is a walk through the conditions which enabled and perhaps prompted the wild swings in some of the major constituents in Nikkei 225 and what caused the major swings in Nikkei vs. TOPIX. 

Breaking Down Wild Nikkei 225 Component Moves

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p>Softbank stock ended up locked limit up towards the end of the trading day after the company announced a massive ¥4.5trn in asset sales/monetisation together with a ¥2.0trn share buyback on top of the already announced ¥0.5trn buyback. Together the two buybacks could soak up 45% of outstanding shares. Given that the stock had fallen 53% between the 12<sup>th</sup> of February and last Thursday, the 19<sup>th</sup> of March, it is not surprising that it went limit up. It would not be entirely surprising if the stock were limit up again tomorrow. If so, that could have some interesting implications for other Nikkei names. Details below.</p>

Softbank stock ended up locked limit up towards the end of the trading day after the company announced a massive ¥4.5trn in asset sales/monetisation together with a ¥2.0trn share buyback on top of the already announced ¥0.5trn buyback. Together the two buybacks could soak up 45% of outstanding shares. Given that the stock had fallen 53% between the 12th of February and last Thursday, the 19th of March, it is not surprising that it went limit up. It would not be entirely surprising if the stock were limit up again tomorrow. If so, that could have some interesting implications for other Nikkei names. Details below.

What Do You Buy if the Softbank Mega-Buyback Drives a Nikkei Squeeze?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/923/original/2020-02-08_18-15-45.png?1581196263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116923"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/924/original/2020-02-09_06-34-51.png?1581197706" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116924"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div><p><strong>OOOPS!</strong> - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>.  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/925/original/2020-02-08_10-48-19.png?1581199859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116925"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>18x EARNINGS</strong> - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/927/original/2020-02-08_10-55-21.png?1581200256" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116927"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>TTM RESULTS</strong> - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/928/original/2020-02-08_10-59-00.png?1581200533" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116928"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of companies continue this trend, the current quarter will equal CQ2019-1 and CQ2018-2 in seeing a 200 basis point Results Score decline. 169 forecasts or revision announcements added  5bps to the Forecast/Revision Score, supported by slight upward revisions from Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP).  The Results Score has dipped below the Forecast/Revision Score for the first time since July 2016 and is a necessary precursor of the bottoming of the cycle. Japan is now in a recession and could see a decline in GDP for the calendar year. The market's current optimism (aided by the Bank of Japan's buy-the-dips support programme) is more appropriate to the middle of the cycle and, with two further poor earnings quarters ahead, suggests limited further upside. Source • Japan Analytics18x EARNINGS - Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income for the composite of listed companies has declined to ¥57.4t, 10% below the peak of early 2019. TTM Net Income has declined by 20% over the same period, resulting in a 6.1 point increase in the market price-earnings ratio to 17.6 times.Source • Japan AnalyticsTTM RESULTS - TTM Operating Profits have been declining quarter-on-quarter for five straight quarters, and are 8.1% lower year-on-year. The Operating Margin has declined from 7.45% to 6.80%. TTM Revenues are now also falling and have only increased by 0.7% year-on-year.Source • Japan AnalyticsFORECASTS - The year-on-year Operating Profit decline using current forecasts is 8.5%, while Revenues are flat. Revenue forecasts have been falling quarter-on-quarter for three quarters in a row. The 'uplift' from TTM to Forecast is just ¥3t for sales and ¥0.3t for OP. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

Japan

Nissan Chemical Industries, Ltd. produces a variety of chemical products, ranging from basic chemicals to functional chemical products.  The Company also manufactures agrochemicals and pharmaceutical products.

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Nissan Chemical Industries (4021 JP)

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2020?

There are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two...

Vermilion Research

Breaking Down Wild Nikkei 225 Component Moves

In the past 4 weeks we have seen substantial disruption in global markets. Total equity market cap across the world is down tens of trillions of...

Travis Lundy

What Do You Buy if the Softbank Mega-Buyback Drives a Nikkei Squeeze?

Softbank stock ended up locked limit up towards the end of the trading day after the company announced a massive ¥4.5trn in asset...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 7th February ▲2121 7267 5713 ▼ 5401 9616 3407

OOOPS! - The 480 quarterly results announced on Friday subtracted a further 20 basis points from our Results Score. If the remaining 38% of...

Campbell Gunn

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