Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.</li>
<li>The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.</li>
<li>115 bps of cuts in 2024.</li>
</ul>


It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with Powell being the first to take the stage on Wednesday, expecting to hawk up the rhetoric a bit whilst keeping the Fed funds upper band steady at 5.5%.
The ECB has recently claimed the title as the most dovish central bank in G10 after markets have added roughly 20 bps of cuts in 2024 to market pricing, and markets now price in approx.
115 bps of cuts in 2024.


5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

<ul><li>With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a look at if we are starting to see signs of markets reversing their ultra-bullish positioning.</li><li>In general markets have taken a bit of a breather from a positioning perspective after the historically bullish sentiment seen throughout November, and people are now starting to hedge their longs based on recent option volumes, with the aggregate US intraday put-call ratio now back solidly above 1.</li><li>Looks like traders are starting to hedge their equity bets going into the central bank bonanza this week.</li></ul>

With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a look at if we are starting to see signs of markets reversing their ultra-bullish positioning.In general markets have taken a bit of a breather from a positioning perspective after the historically bullish sentiment seen throughout November, and people are now starting to hedge their longs based on recent option volumes, with the aggregate US intraday put-call ratio now back solidly above 1.Looks like traders are starting to hedge their equity bets going into the central bank bonanza this week.

Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?

<ul><li>Ahead of a couple of big inflation weeks, we look into the details of the UK, Swedish, and Norwegian CPI here.</li><li>Despite some signs of rapidly rising electricity prices, the overall picture will likely look soft and especially recreation and culture prices have the potential to surprise markedly on the downside.</li><li>Conclusions up front:– The UK CPI is likely to look very soft.</li></ul>

Ahead of a couple of big inflation weeks, we look into the details of the UK, Swedish, and Norwegian CPI here.Despite some signs of rapidly rising electricity prices, the overall picture will likely look soft and especially recreation and culture prices have the potential to surprise markedly on the downside.Conclusions up front:– The UK CPI is likely to look very soft.

Inflation Watch: Another Deflation Shocker from Europe? UK, Sweden and Norway Are Under the Loop!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.</li>
<li>The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).</li>
<li>Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.</li>
</ul>


The Eurozone is on the brink of recession but with rates front-running the ECB we may see some odd patterns as the bullwhip reverses while the weakness spills over to the service sector.
The ECB needs to go on the front foot to avoid a recession or the impact of higher real incomes and FCI easing has to surprise big time (which we find unlikely).
Either way EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.


Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>Norges Bank just announced that they will keep the daily NOK sales unchanged at 1400 million per day in December (sales of 1400 million NOK per day up to and including 15 December).</li><li>This was what we expected as the most likely outcome beforehand, although we wouldn’t be surprised if the NOK sales were reduced a tad today.</li><li>That said, we believe that a larger cut in NOK sales will be announced on the 29 of December.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Norges Bank just announced that they will keep the daily NOK sales unchanged at 1400 million per day in December (sales of 1400 million NOK per day up to and including 15 December).This was what we expected as the most likely outcome beforehand, although we wouldn’t be surprised if the NOK sales were reduced a tad today.That said, we believe that a larger cut in NOK sales will be announced on the 29 of December.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB

It’s central bank week once again, and that of course calls for us to share our thoughts ahead of the biggest meeting over the next week with...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?

With Powell taking the stage on Wednesday, likely turning more hawkish in his rhetoric after weeks of financial conditions easing, we have had a...

Steno Research

Inflation Watch: Another Deflation Shocker from Europe? UK, Sweden and Norway Are Under the Loop!

We overall see continued trends towards strong disinflation in Europe and the global surprise index on inflation looks transitory.

Steno Research

Out of the Box #25: Europe. From Technical Recession to an Real One?

EUR duration still has further to go and we remain long- soft landing cuts or emergency cuts should leave the long end lower.

Steno Research

NOK Update: Ending at a high

Norges Bank just announced that they will keep the daily NOK sales unchanged at 1400 million per day in December (sales of 1400 million NOK per day...

Nordea

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