Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.</li><li>The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.</li><li>Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Norway is currently considering a set of financial proposals that could significantly impact its currency and overall money market landscape.</li><li>These proposals revolve around the handling of dividends and interest from Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, which could lead to notable changes in the liquidity within the Norwegian economy.</li><li>The primary focus is on the current practice of sterilizing dividends and interest, a method that could soon see a shift, including how to handle the growing volatility and nominal size of the Treasury account.</li></ul>

Norway is currently considering a set of financial proposals that could significantly impact its currency and overall money market landscape.These proposals revolve around the handling of dividends and interest from Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, which could lead to notable changes in the liquidity within the Norwegian economy.The primary focus is on the current practice of sterilizing dividends and interest, a method that could soon see a shift, including how to handle the growing volatility and nominal size of the Treasury account.

Scandi Watch: More NOK Liquidity Coming, but with Positive FX Spot Effects?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Ahead of the Norges Bank meeting tomorrow morning, we’ll elaborate on the mechanics behind the rate path model at Norges Bank and how the new path will likely look tomorrow.</li><li>The below visualization is a great rule of thumb on the impact of various categories in the mechanical adjustment to the rate path.</li><li>If I44 (NOK import weighted) increases by 1% relative to the base-case, it impacts the curve by 10bps.</li></ul>

Ahead of the Norges Bank meeting tomorrow morning, we’ll elaborate on the mechanics behind the rate path model at Norges Bank and how the new path will likely look tomorrow.The below visualization is a great rule of thumb on the impact of various categories in the mechanical adjustment to the rate path.If I44 (NOK import weighted) increases by 1% relative to the base-case, it impacts the curve by 10bps.

Norway Watch: Cheat sheet to assessing Norges Banks rate path

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>Norges Bank just announced that they will keep the daily NOK sales unchanged at 350 million per day in March.</li><li>This was as expected and we believe that NOK sales will remain broadly the same, as the Government is expected to have a larger (petroleum) income than the budget deficit.</li><li>Today’s announcement did not move the NOK which confirms that NOK sales have moved into the background.Lately, interest rates have been the main driving factor of NOK.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Norges Bank just announced that they will keep the daily NOK sales unchanged at 350 million per day in March.This was as expected and we believe that NOK sales will remain broadly the same, as the Government is expected to have a larger (petroleum) income than the budget deficit.Today’s announcement did not move the NOK which confirms that NOK sales have moved into the background.Lately, interest rates have been the main driving factor of NOK.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch.</li><li>Markets were caught on the wrong side of expectations last week with PPI coming in substantially hotter than expected, but equity sentiment has remained decent outside of some profit taking in Tech, as the cocktail of better liquidity conditions and a brightening economic outlook is likely to prevail – and positioning provides very decent opportunities to trade the potential comeback for cyclical assets.</li><li>As this week’s chart of the week we present to you what looks to be the theme of Q1 2024, and the reason why right now is not a good time to be contrarian: momentum is king, and “go with the flow” currently performs WAY better than cherry-picking the good old value stocks.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch.Markets were caught on the wrong side of expectations last week with PPI coming in substantially hotter than expected, but equity sentiment has remained decent outside of some profit taking in Tech, as the cocktail of better liquidity conditions and a brightening economic outlook is likely to prevail – and positioning provides very decent opportunities to trade the potential comeback for cyclical assets.As this week’s chart of the week we present to you what looks to be the theme of Q1 2024, and the reason why right now is not a good time to be contrarian: momentum is king, and “go with the flow” currently performs WAY better than cherry-picking the good old value stocks.

Positioning Watch – Low FX volatility provides cheap leverage for a rebound in manufacturing

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. The cocktail of better...

Steno Research

Scandi Watch: More NOK Liquidity Coming, but with Positive FX Spot Effects?

Norway is currently considering a set of financial proposals that could significantly impact its currency and overall money market...

Steno Research

Norway Watch: Cheat sheet to assessing Norges Banks rate path

Ahead of the Norges Bank meeting tomorrow morning, we’ll elaborate on the mechanics behind the rate path model at Norges Bank and how the new path...

Steno Research

NOK Update: Sideways for now

Today’s announcement did not move the NOK which confirms that NOK sales have moved into the background.Lately, interest rates have been the main...

Nordea

Positioning Watch – Low FX volatility provides cheap leverage for a rebound in manufacturing

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch. Markets were caught on the wrong side of expectations last week with PPI coming...

Steno Research

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