External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>We expect core inflation to fall to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% in June while Norges Bank has 3.7% pencilled in for July.</li><li>The data will be published on Friday 9 August at 8AM CET.</li><li>The main reason for the decline is a smaller increase in food prices this July compared to last year.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect core inflation to fall to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% in June while Norges Bank has 3.7% pencilled in for July.The data will be published on Friday 9 August at 8AM CET.The main reason for the decline is a smaller increase in food prices this July compared to last year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NO CPI Preview: Lower Inflation but No Rate Cut on the Agenda

<ul><li>The drop in interest rates expectations in Norway is mainly due to increased recession fears in the US after weaker than expected labour market data there.</li><li>The market went into panic mode and now expects the Fed to deliver more than 8 cuts (210bps) over the next year.</li><li>Keeping in mind that it is less than a week since we heard chairman Powell describe the labour market and the economy as in a good place, it certainly looks excessive.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The drop in interest rates expectations in Norway is mainly due to increased recession fears in the US after weaker than expected labour market data there.The market went into panic mode and now expects the Fed to deliver more than 8 cuts (210bps) over the next year.Keeping in mind that it is less than a week since we heard chairman Powell describe the labour market and the economy as in a good place, it certainly looks excessive.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NOK Update: Market Pessimism Overdone for Norway

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.</li><li>Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.</li><li>Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.</li></ul>

The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.</li><li>It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received, and we’re working on expanding it to more assets on a running basis.It’s worth revisiting the points we raised about concentration in broader equity indices.

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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NOK (USDNOK CURNCY)

NO CPI Preview: Lower Inflation but No Rate Cut on the Agenda

We expect core inflation to fall to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% in June while Norges Bank has 3.7% pencilled in for July. The data will be published on...

Nordea

NOK Update: Market Pessimism Overdone for Norway

The drop in interest rates expectations in Norway is mainly due to increased recession fears in the US after weaker than expected labour market...

Nordea

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices. Norges Bank is in contrast...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Increasing the BETA risk?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. Our newly invented high-frequency hedge fund positioning data was well received,...

Steno Research

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