Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected lines</li><li>Norges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming data</li><li>Bank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next year</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Riksbank expected to stay on hold due to inflation moving along expected linesNorges Bank has implicit easing bias but unlikely to deliver rate cuts based on incoming dataBank of England keeps rates on hold with closer vote split, markets pricing in gradual rate cuts through early next yearThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates: BoE and Scandi central bank roundup

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We and everyone else were uncertain ahead of todays decision.</li><li>Even the governor said that they had considered to hold they rate unchanged and the model rate path from Norges Bank indicated no cut this time around.</li><li>So it was a committee judgment that led to the cut now instead of in December.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We and everyone else were uncertain ahead of todays decision.Even the governor said that they had considered to hold they rate unchanged and the model rate path from Norges Bank indicated no cut this time around.So it was a committee judgment that led to the cut now instead of in December.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK &amp; NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front levels and to some extent lower levels further out the curve with the tipping point around the 5y area.</li><li>The largest cross boarder issuers are ahead of plans, closing in on YTD funding targets.</li><li>Thus, unless we see changes to funding targets we expect less demand for paying EURUSD XCCY basis towards year-end. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK &amp; NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front levels and to some extent lower levels further out the curve with the tipping point around the 5y area.The largest cross boarder issuers are ahead of plans, closing in on YTD funding targets.Thus, unless we see changes to funding targets we expect less demand for paying EURUSD XCCY basis towards year-end. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

<ul>
<li>The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.</li>
<li>Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.</li>
<li>A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.</li>
</ul>


The dollar reacted to one macro factor all year, with a sensitivity statistically indistinguishable across five regimes; what changed was which driver moved the factor and whether others followed it.
Gold led before the Iran war, VIX during it and again in the fiscal-dominance weeks; since Jackson Hole the dollar has traded the factor itself, led by the front end.
A dollar factor and the same macro drivers explain 72%-85% of every G10 currency except the yen; beyond the dollar, NOK traded oil, CAD the BoC, NZD the RBNZ.


Five Regimes, One Reaction Function-  What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

<ul><li>Domestic supply prices for consumption goods were largely unchanged in April, while we had expected prices to decline.</li><li>Swedish manufacturing industry’s producer prices continued down in April and fell by 1.6% m/m and by 2.4% year-on-year.</li><li>The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was largely unchanged vs the EUR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic supply prices for consumption goods were largely unchanged in April, while we had expected prices to decline.Swedish manufacturing industry’s producer prices continued down in April and fell by 1.6% m/m and by 2.4% year-on-year.The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was largely unchanged vs the EUR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Swedish producer & import prices: Consumer goods sideways in April

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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European Rates: BoE and Scandi central bank roundup

Central banks in Sweden, Norway, and the UK are expected to maintain their current interest rate levels, with market overpricing rate cuts and...

At Any Rate

Norges Bank Review: A hawkish cut

Even the governor said that they had considered to hold they rate unchanged and the model rate path from Norges Bank indicated no cut this time...

Nordea

Nordea XCCY Publication: Q3-2025

We hope everyone has enjoyed the summer! Since our last publication, the EUR, SEK & NOK XCCY basis curves have all flattened driven by higher front...

Nordea

Five Regimes, One Reaction Function- What the Dollar and G10 Have Traded on in 2026

The dollar traded one macro factor all year with an unchanged sensitivity; though underlying drivers shifted In G10, four currencies traded beyond...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Swedish producer & import prices: Consumer goods sideways in April

The SEK strengthened by a full 3.7% vs the USD, 1.9% vs the GBP and by 2.4% vs the NOK during the period that SCB measures prices in April, but was...

Nordea

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