External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We at Nordea Markets expect that Norges Bank will keep the key policy rate steady in March and our view is that there will be no more rate cuts from Norges Bank this year or the next.</li><li>After the high inflation figures for February, the market has gone from fully pricing a rate cut in March to now pricing a 30% probability.</li><li>Therefore, if Norges Bank remains on hold next week, the NOK could strengthen somewhat further. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We at Nordea Markets expect that Norges Bank will keep the key policy rate steady in March and our view is that there will be no more rate cuts from Norges Bank this year or the next.After the high inflation figures for February, the market has gone from fully pricing a rate cut in March to now pricing a 30% probability.Therefore, if Norges Bank remains on hold next week, the NOK could strengthen somewhat further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>“The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.</li><li>Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first cut will arrive in March next year:</li><li>“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”At the same time, Norges Bank also acknowledged that the need for rate cuts ahead has diminished somewhat on the back of stronger than expected growth so far but also due to a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy next year.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

“The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first cut will arrive in March next year:“Based on the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook, the policy rate will most likely be reduced in March 2025”At the same time, Norges Bank also acknowledged that the need for rate cuts ahead has diminished somewhat on the back of stronger than expected growth so far but also due to a significantly more stimulative fiscal policy next year.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Last week we wrote in detail on the new framework for Norges Bank’s market operation.</li><li>There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market instead of issuing additonal NGBs.</li><li>We also looked at the effects on bank reserves and NGB issuance from the additional 82bn transfer from the government accounts to the oil fund in 2025</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week we wrote in detail on the new framework for Norges Bank’s market operation.There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market instead of issuing additonal NGBs.We also looked at the effects on bank reserves and NGB issuance from the additional 82bn transfer from the government accounts to the oil fund in 2025Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Increased structural liquidity and lower Nibor-OIS premium going forward

<ul><li>Next Thursday Norges Bank will keep its key rate at 4.5% as signalled and widely expected.</li><li>As this is an ‘interim’ meeting there will be no new forecasts, only a verbal press statement.</li><li>The statement will highlight that inflation has come in slightly lower than expected but that it is still too high, but also that the NOK has been weaker and forward rates abroad has increased.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Next Thursday Norges Bank will keep its key rate at 4.5% as signalled and widely expected.As this is an ‘interim’ meeting there will be no new forecasts, only a verbal press statement.The statement will highlight that inflation has come in slightly lower than expected but that it is still too high, but also that the NOK has been weaker and forward rates abroad has increased.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.</li><li>Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.</li><li>Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.</li></ul>

The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices.Norges Bank is in contrast to other central banks extremely structured/mechanical around their rate decisions and the upcoming policy bias can hence be tracked with a decent precision in real time.Here is a brief summary of the current status of the (semi)-mechanical adjustments to the rate path from June, given recent development.

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

Norway

The Norwegian krone is the official currency of the Kingdom of Norway.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Lower EURNOK before the trend reverses

We at Nordea Markets expect that Norges Bank will keep the key policy rate steady in March and our view is that there will be no more rate cuts...

Nordea

Norges Bank Review: Higher Rate Path

The time to ease monetary policy is approaching” has been the mantra since the September report.Today Norges Bank indicated clearly that the first...

Nordea

Increased structural liquidity and lower Nibor-OIS premium going forward

There we looked at the effects on structural liquidity of Norges Bank neutralizing the transfers of fx reserve returns by using the fx market...

Nordea

Norges Bank Preview: No change

Next Thursday Norges Bank will keep its key rate at 4.5% as signalled and widely expected. As this is an ‘interim’ meeting there will be no new...

Nordea

Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?

The Norwegian rates case is always interesting when we see significant moves in NOK, foreign rates, and energy prices. Norges Bank is in contrast...

Steno Research

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