European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PMI is making a recommended cash offer for the Swedish Match at SEK106/share, valuing it at SEK161.2 billion ($16 billion), 39% premium, 17.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 23.1x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Swedish Match is strategic for PMI and a valuable asset amidst big tobacco diversification drive. Some shareholders make this point to try to extract a higher price.</li>
<li>As of close of 12 May, gross spread is 3.3%, an interesting 8.7% annualised (assuming settlement by 7 October). The risk of not completing the offer seems low.</li>
</ul>


PMI is making a recommended cash offer for the Swedish Match at SEK106/share, valuing it at SEK161.2 billion ($16 billion), 39% premium, 17.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 23.1x Fwd P/E.
Swedish Match is strategic for PMI and a valuable asset amidst big tobacco diversification drive. Some shareholders make this point to try to extract a higher price.
As of close of 12 May, gross spread is 3.3%, an interesting 8.7% annualised (assuming settlement by 7 October). The risk of not completing the offer seems low.


Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Credit

<ul><li>Philip Morris essentially operates in a slowing tobacco industry but its strong brands and market position have continued to inspire growth.</li><li>The company set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased overall volumes as a result of strong organic growth.</li><li>Based on our credit analysis, the company merits a Credit Evaluation Score of A with a stable outlook and as per our Financial Strength Indicator, its performance is 4.00/ 5.</li></ul>

Philip Morris essentially operates in a slowing tobacco industry but its strong brands and market position have continued to inspire growth.The company set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased overall volumes as a result of strong organic growth.Based on our credit analysis, the company merits a Credit Evaluation Score of A with a stable outlook and as per our Financial Strength Indicator, its performance is 4.00/ 5.

Philip Morris International: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Equity Capital Markets

Philip Morris International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Despite being in a declining industry, Philip Morris set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased overall volumes as a result of strong organic growth.</li><li>The company’s organic net revenue per unit growth has demonstrated its shift in the business mix away from the core cigarettes business.</li><li>Despite continued shortages in device supplies in the second half of 2021, IQOS user growth reached an estimated 21.2 million total users.</li></ul>

Despite being in a declining industry, Philip Morris set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased overall volumes as a result of strong organic growth.The company’s organic net revenue per unit growth has demonstrated its shift in the business mix away from the core cigarettes business.Despite continued shortages in device supplies in the second half of 2021, IQOS user growth reached an estimated 21.2 million total users.

Philip Morris: Financial & Price Forecasts

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilray-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27402:1" rel="noopener">Tilray Inc (TLRY US)</a> hit 52-week low amid delay to pass a federal marijuana legalization bill in the U.S., falling cannabis prices and intense competition among cannabis producers.</li>
<li>Tilray’s valuation looks attractive keeping in mind upcoming (Jan-Mar 2022) marijuana legalization at the federal level in the United States and acquisition of Breckenridge Distillery and MedMen.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilray-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27402:1" rel="noopener">Tilray Inc (TLRY US)</a> will report strong earnings for Q2’FY22 on January 10th next year and see interest from Big Tobacco to enter high-growth marijuana business.</li>
</ul>


Shares of Tilray Inc (TLRY US) hit 52-week low amid delay to pass a federal marijuana legalization bill in the U.S., falling cannabis prices and intense competition among cannabis producers.
Tilray’s valuation looks attractive keeping in mind upcoming (Jan-Mar 2022) marijuana legalization at the federal level in the United States and acquisition of Breckenridge Distillery and MedMen.
We expect Tilray Inc (TLRY US) will report strong earnings for Q2’FY22 on January 10th next year and see interest from Big Tobacco to enter high-growth marijuana business.


Opportunity To Secure a Strategic Investment From a Big Tobacco Company?

<ul><li>Philip Morris delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2021 which was driven by the continued strong growth of IQOS.</li><li>This alone made up 13% of their volumes and approximately 30% of their adjusted net revenues compared to 24% in the same quarter of 2020.</li><li>The combustible net revenues increased by 4% in the second quarter on an organic basis, reflecting a partial volume rebound compared to the weak performance in 2020 which was largely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.</li></ul>

Philip Morris delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2021 which was driven by the continued strong growth of IQOS.This alone made up 13% of their volumes and approximately 30% of their adjusted net revenues compared to 24% in the same quarter of 2020.The combustible net revenues increased by 4% in the second quarter on an organic basis, reflecting a partial volume rebound compared to the weak performance in 2020 which was largely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Philip Morris International Inc. - Investment Thesis

United States

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, affiliates and their licensees, produces, sells, distributes, and markets a wide range of branded cigarettes and tobacco products in markets outside of the United States of America.  The Company's portfolio comprises both international and local brands.

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Philip Morris International (PM US)

Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Although the offer price seems fair, SWMA is a strategic acquisition for PMI, which could hike the offer price if challenged by a counteroffer or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Philip Morris International: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Philip Morris essentially operates in a slowing tobacco industry but its strong brands and market position have continued to inspire growth. The...

Baptista Research

Philip Morris: Financial & Price Forecasts

Despite being in a declining industry, Philip Morris set new highs in net revenues, earnings, and cash flows in the year driven by increased...

Baptista Research

Opportunity To Secure a Strategic Investment From a Big Tobacco Company?

We believe Tilray is a promising investment in global cannabis industry keeping in mind strong interest from Big Tobacco and upcoming marijuana...

Andrei Zakharov

Philip Morris International Inc. - Investment Thesis

Philip Morris delivered a solid performance in the second quarter of 2021 which was driven by the continued strong growth of IQOS. This alone made...

Baptista Research

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