Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we've anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.


Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in.</li>
<li>RTY remains our top US short and is underperforming the SPX. 1,710 near target with a June bias to crack this pivotal support.</li>
<li>US 10yr yield met our rally and sell target at 3.80%. Macro take was to sell yield at 3.80% to test pocket support. USD will lag.</li>
</ul>


SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in.
RTY remains our top US short and is underperforming the SPX. 1,710 near target with a June bias to crack this pivotal support.
US 10yr yield met our rally and sell target at 3.80%. Macro take was to sell yield at 3.80% to test pocket support. USD will lag.


iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended May 19, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.0%).</li>
<li>Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.0% of the index) drove the index’s outperformance, rising 6.2%, while Energy Technology (7.9% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.9%.</li>
<li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>


WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended May 19, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.0%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.0% of the index) drove the index’s outperformance, rising 6.2%, while Energy Technology (7.9% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.9%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&amp;P 500.


Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 19, 2023

<ul><li>Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y.</li><li>This beat consensus of $123.0 million. The revenue increase was driven by three new stores and strength in its New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia operations.</li><li>1Q adjusted EBITDA declined to $16.4 million from $17.4 million in 4Q. This was below consensus of $17.4 million.</li></ul>

Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y.This beat consensus of $123.0 million. The revenue increase was driven by three new stores and strength in its New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia operations.1Q adjusted EBITDA declined to $16.4 million from $17.4 million in 4Q. This was below consensus of $17.4 million.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 19, 2023

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

5/2/23 we discussed how $Nasdaq Comp was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 was possible. It hit 13,154 Tuesday as...

Vermilion Research

SPX Met Blow off Zone

SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in. RTY is our top US...

Thomas Schroeder

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 19, 2023

Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&P 500.

Water Tower Research

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 19, 2023

Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y. This beat consensus of $123.0 million.

Water Tower Research