Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.</li>
<li>
Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> implied volatility is cheap across the curve.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.

Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) implied volatility is cheap across the curve.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.</li>
<li>
Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Exchange holidays: Early October holidays in China (Golden Week) and South Korea (Chuseok) may dampen market activity, while India’s Diwali on 21–22 October brings the traditional Muhurat trading session.

Earnings season begins in the final third of October across India, Japan, China/Hong Kong, and South Korea, alongside key central bank meetings and the TOPIX rebalance on 30 October.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. There are capping and float changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.</li>
</ul>


There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.</li>
<li>OVERBOUGHT:  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> .</li>
<li>OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD Company (1211 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> .</li>
</ul>


1-Week directional forecast for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
OVERBOUGHT:  Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , HSI Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX , Nikkei 225 .
OVERSOLD: BYD Company (1211 HK) , S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX .


Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


A synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, week September 1 – September 5. The MODEL's SUPPORT/RESISTANCE data file is attached.

OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) , Gold (GOLD COMDTY) , 10-Year US Treasuries (ZN Futures)

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , China Mobile (941 HK) , Softbank Group (9984 JP)



Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Gaudenz Schneider

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

There are 13 adds, 2 deletes, float and capping changes for the GDXJ. There are multiple stocks that have passive flows from the Fglobal, ASX and...

Brian Freitas

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

​Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Gaudenz Schneider

Earnings Kickoff Dominates October 2025 Key Events

October 2025 kicks off earnings season – reports from Fast Retailing (9983 JP), ICICI Bank (ICICIB IN) & more – alongside holidays and central bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

There are 13 adds, 2 deletes, float and capping changes for the GDXJ. There are multiple stocks that have passive flows from the Fglobal, ASX and...

Brian Freitas

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

​Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: WEEKLY Recap (Sep 8 – Sep 12)

Tactical WEEKLY review for global markets for the week of September 1-5, with overbought and oversold analysis. Anticipate inflection points before...

Nico Rosti

Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Our weekly stocks outlook directional forecast, generated with on our proprietary probability models. Overbought markets are expected to go down,...