Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-<em>October</em> 2022.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-October 2022.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1" rel="noopener">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a> is under Tender Offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. </li>
<li>This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



Aruhi Corp (7198 JP) is under Tender Offer by SBI Holdings (8473 JP) which wants to buy back in and expand the offering through SBI and Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). 
The Tender Offer was expected to close on Monday, and Aruhi earnings were expected on the 10th of November. Today Aruhi changed its forecasts, so SBI extended the tender. 
This engenders a bit of 🧐👀 on my part, but we gotta go with the flow. Discussion ensues. And watch for trading opportunities.


Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. </li>
<li>It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. </li>
<li>Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX October FFW rebalance is Friday at the close. 
It is still ¥2trln+ to buy and ¥2trln+ to sell. And there are some big names. A spreadsheet is attached with all the flows. 
Surprisingly, the top 40 Z-scores on each side have traded in a VERY tight range for the 6 weeks prior to the announcement and the two weeks post. Very weird.


TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was "planning to take Shinsei private."</li>
<li>This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei's.</li>
<li>It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, a Kyodo News article suggested SBI was "planning to take Shinsei private."
This morning, near-identically-worded replies were proffered, belatedly, and SBI appears to have moved its earnings release date to match Shinsei's.
It helps to remember Communications mandated by Exchange Rules are worded so that they are not technically or legally incorrect. Shareholder transparency and good governance is not the goal.


Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s unit SBI Regional Bank Holdings KK (SBI 地銀ホールディングス株式会社) today <a href="https://www.sbigroup.co.jp/english/news/pdf/2022/1011_a_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received FSA authorisation to turn the company into a Bank Holding Company.  </li>
<li>There are some technicalities involved. SBI announced it would buy 2.5mm shares of Shinsei on-market to get to 50.05% by end-March 2023. This will disappoint some, but...</li>
<li>I expect investors should continue to look at the big picture. Technicalities are technicalities. Strategy is strategy. The big picture is unchanged and there isn't <em>that</em> much room to manoeuvre. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s unit SBI Regional Bank Holdings KK (SBI 地銀ホールディングス株式会社) today announced it had received FSA authorisation to turn the company into a Bank Holding Company.  
There are some technicalities involved. SBI announced it would buy 2.5mm shares of Shinsei on-market to get to 50.05% by end-March 2023. This will disappoint some, but...
I expect investors should continue to look at the big picture. Technicalities are technicalities. Strategy is strategy. The big picture is unchanged and there isn't that much room to manoeuvre. 


SBI Obtains Approval - Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei - It Isn't Strategic, It's Technical

Japan

SBI Holdings, Inc. manages venture capital fund which mainly invest in Internet related venture companies.  The Company also provides brokerage, investment banking, and financial services.

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SBI Holdings (8473 JP)

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Oct 2022

The LONG Potential ADDs - SHORT Potential DELs trade (involving Quiddity's HIGH and MED conviction groups on both sides) could result in a net...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Aruhi (7198) Forecast Reduction, Tender Extended, Watch for Index and Trading Flow

Aruhi (7198) today lowered full-year guidance (rev -11.6%, NetInc -28%) which means SBI has to extend its Tender Offer to 11 Nov. Knee-jerk...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October 2022 Rebal - Treading Water

The October 2022 TOPIX FFW rebalance - ¥2.1trln a side - is to be executed on Friday. There are some large flows on event names, and elsewhere. The...

Travis Lundy

Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) - Reading Between The Lines

Shinsei was yesterday reported to be "planning to privatise Shinsei Bank" and today "no concrete steps are being considered to delist the Bank"....

Travis Lundy

SBI Obtains Approval - Has Plan To Buy 0.965% of Shinsei - It Isn't Strategic, It's Technical

SBI today announced it had received Bank Holding Company approval. To do that, it needs 50+% of votes in Shinsei. Some will misunderstand the news....

Travis Lundy

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