Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Another report of potential suitors made it to market on Friday, forcing NOL to disclose there have been talks with French carrier CMA and global leader Maersk. NOL&rsquo;s shares rose some 6% to $1.05 and closer to book NAV per share around&nbsp;S$1.4 (and higher when the US dollar drifts higher). But what would make a potential transaction more interesting, if at all, keeping in mind the Hapag IPO pricing was about 25% below the original high end of the range?</p>

Another report of potential suitors made it to market on Friday, forcing NOL to disclose there have been talks with French carrier CMA and global leader Maersk. NOL&rsquo;s shares rose some 6% to $1.05 and closer to book NAV per share around&nbsp;S$1.4 (and higher when the US dollar drifts higher). But what would make a potential transaction more interesting, if at all, keeping in mind the Hapag IPO pricing was about 25% below the original high end of the range?

NOL's Latest Potential Merger Discussions... Where is the [Partial] Exit for Temasek?

Head of Digital Services at Singapore Post Ltd, Singapore Post Limited

Bernard Leong

Head of Digital Services at Singapore Post Ltd

Singapore Post Limited

<p>How should digital leaders advise businesses? Two ways: target the high and low ends of the market while allowing cannibalisation against their current business model in a controlled pace.&nbsp;The trick lies in capital allocation and separation of the products/services moving towards both ends. Digital products often require high cost of acquisition contrary to perception by businesses that it is cheaper against traditional channels.</p>

How should digital leaders advise businesses? Two ways: target the high and low ends of the market while allowing cannibalisation against their current business model in a controlled pace.&nbsp;The trick lies in capital allocation and separation of the products/services moving towards both ends. Digital products often require high cost of acquisition contrary to perception by businesses that it is cheaper against traditional channels.

Digital disruption bifurcates traditional market segmentation

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  </li>
<li>The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.</li>
<li>CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s Jan figures suggest a good start, as passenger traffic grew 12.3% despite a high base in the last year.  
The market consensus forecast of 8% profit decline for FY26 is too conservative. Even on such a forecast, it still trades on an undemanding 9.3x PER and 4.8% yield.
CX is expected to have an average FY25-27F ROE of 15.9%, the highest level in the last 15 years. Hence, its P/B of 1.35x is inexpensive.


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 </li>
<li>Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings</li>
<li>Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon</li>
</ul>


Slower pace of January activity growth explained by timing of long LNY holidays in 2025/26 
Initial numbers from LNY holiday period show more trips,  but tight purse-strings
Airlines appear to be managing well; a clearer picture of consumer will emerge soon


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

<ul>
<li>The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y</li>
<li>But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period</li>
<li>Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares</li>
</ul>


The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y
But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period
Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares


Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Singapore

Singapore Airlines is the flag carrier of Singapore, offering full-service international passenger and cargo air transportation. It operates a dual-brand strategy with its premium services and the low-cost carrier Scoot, serving numerous destinations globally. The company is headquartered in Airline House, Changi, Singapore, and was incorporated in 1972.

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Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)

NOL's Latest Potential Merger Discussions... Where is the [Partial] Exit for Temasek?

Another report of potential suitors made it to market on Friday, forcing NOL to disclose there have been talks with French carrier CMA and global...

Charles De Trenck

Digital disruption bifurcates traditional market segmentation

How should digital leaders advise businesses? Two ways: target the high and low ends of the market while allowing cannibalisation against their...

Bernard Leong

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): A Good Start

CX's FY25 net profit of HK$10.8bn (+9.5% YoY) has beaten market expectations widely, as it is 19.1% ahead of the consensus forecast. With a second...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January Impacted by LNY Timing | Initial LNY 2026 Numbers So-So

January's Chinese tourism activity data were hurt by the timing of the LNY holiday. We have initial holiday numbers, but we'll get a better sense...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Top-line growth accelerated in Q425, but margin compression persisted. Management's poor cost control is frustrating, and an ongoing investigation...

Tracking Traffic

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