Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sept. 22 Opposition largely recycles the CAC, but its January 2026 customer vetting logic strengthens MTD survival odds, keeping Hynix as the key litigation focus.</li>
<li>The January 2026 customer vetting point makes Hynix’s need to double down on its HBM transition narrative even more critical, potentially strengthening the case for ADR expansion.</li>
<li>Regulatory approval remains key, but political and strategic incentives increasingly support ADR expansion, potentially making Hynix ADR arb a key trade setup from mid October.</li>
</ul>


Sept. 22 Opposition largely recycles the CAC, but its January 2026 customer vetting logic strengthens MTD survival odds, keeping Hynix as the key litigation focus.
The January 2026 customer vetting point makes Hynix’s need to double down on its HBM transition narrative even more critical, potentially strengthening the case for ADR expansion.
Regulatory approval remains key, but political and strategic incentives increasingly support ADR expansion, potentially making Hynix ADR arb a key trade setup from mid October.


Sept 22 MTD Opposition Raises Oct 21 Survival Odds, Boosting Hynix ADR Expansion Incentive

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.</li>
<li>$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $119-$121.
$123-$123.50 remains short-term support to watch on ACWI-US (6.5-month base); we would expect support here on a pullback, but a break below it would likely mean a test of $119-$121


Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).</li>
<li>We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 5700-5785 and $120-$121 (up from 5500 and $115).
We are upgrading Korea(KOSPI) to overweight; we discussed May 30 several Financials and other stocks to buy. KOSPI has exploded higher since, and is now reversing its 2-year RS downtrend.


Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

<ul>
<li>Fresh local chatter links Samsung and Hynix accelerating buyback completion to the DRAM price fixing litigation, with September 29 CMC and October 21 MTD as key binary events.</li>
<li>MTD denial could shift the narrative from supply discipline to coordinated supply discipline, with Micron's divergent stance and tight Samsung and Hynix inventories adding to legal overhang.</li>
<li>The key trading window may be Sep 29 to Oct 21, as the CMC could signal discovery scope and trigger front running of the MTD outcome.</li>
</ul>


Fresh local chatter links Samsung and Hynix accelerating buyback completion to the DRAM price fixing litigation, with September 29 CMC and October 21 MTD as key binary events.
MTD denial could shift the narrative from supply discipline to coordinated supply discipline, with Micron's divergent stance and tight Samsung and Hynix inventories adding to legal overhang.
The key trading window may be Sep 29 to Oct 21, as the CMC could signal discovery scope and trigger front running of the MTD outcome.


Trading Setup from Samsung and Hynix Timing Buyback Completion Around Litigation Key Dates

South Korea

SK Square Co., Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company invests in semiconductors, information and communications technologies, and other industries. SK Square conducts businesses in South Korea.

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SK Square (402340 KS)

Sept 22 MTD Opposition Raises Oct 21 Survival Odds, Boosting Hynix ADR Expansion Incentive

The Sept. 22 MTD Opposition raises the odds of MTD survival on Oct. 21, which in turn strengthens Hynix’s incentive to expand its ADR volume.

Sanghyun Park

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports

Israel TA-125 Remains Bullish; Buys in Norway; All MSCI Global Indexes Above Base Supports $ACWI, $ACWX, ACWI ex-US Small-Caps, $EEM, and $EFA....

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Korea to Overweight; MSCI ACWI and Emerging Market Breakouts

MSCI $ACWI and Emerging Market $EEM Breakouts; Upgrading Korea $EWY to Overweight; Downgrading Broad Europe, but staying Overweight Germany,...

Vermilion Research

Trading Setup from Samsung and Hynix Timing Buyback Completion Around Litigation Key Dates

Sep 22’s MTD opposition deadline should be a key catalyst for Hynix and Samsung. The HBM transition narrative sets this case apart from prior...

Sanghyun Park

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